groovinmahoovin

Sports Options shows Wynn as opening -5 at 3:02:12pm on Sunday, moving to -5.5 at 3:04:47 and to -6 at 3:09:17 and I think when I checked earlier Toni had it at -5.5 in roughly the same time period, but of course two books with a low limit opener is a joke.

If you needed a more obvious example of how KKKlay is a complete fraud, this week he gave out Louisville -5.5 (!!!) as a pick, and in his column yesterday talking about his picks he said "Louisville -5-5 at UNC (Now Louisville -10) - This is a great example of why you should be signed up for Outkick VIP [his tout service], you're getting an extra 4.5 points if you check our message board on Sunday afternoon as opposed to the number you're getting today." Louisville -5.5 was a low limit opener. He claimed to have gotten 3000 subscribers to his tout service the first day he offered it, so how many people possibly could have even gotten down on -5.5??

KKKlay is just a run of the mill fraud tout without anything insightful to add. The most obvious example of his fraudulence is that he sells picks while also promoting sportsbook affiliates, so he profits from the pick sales AND any customer losses. He happily promotes whatever sportsbook pays him affiliate money, last year it was Oddsshark/Bovada, this year he's linked up with Todd Fuhrman's Betonline affiliate as well. Hilariously, while he doesn't currently practice law, he's still a member of the Tennessee bar and teaches CLE classes, so the illegality of the affiliate nonsense could end up biting him on the ass. Since his target audience are idiot dude bros and not serious gamblers, he doesn't even attempt to be accurate, for example a year or two ago he did a show with a "gambling expert" who is quite literally a cocktail waitress and golf caddy (Kelly in Vegas), knowing that the dude bros care more about tits than serious gambling info. Her pick for the 2nd day of the NCAA tournament was "Notre Dame +3 because I like playing them as a dog but not a fave." Notre Dame was actually -3. KKKlay had no idea what the line actually was so he didn't even point out the error. Could you imagine taking betting advice from people who think a -3 fave is actually +3?

That includes him risking FIFTEEN UNITS on Mayweather -500 and also a past posted 3 unit play he didn't text to BLAP until the game was over or almost over. He's out of control over there.

Vegas Dave's latest con is selling counterfeit basketball cards: https://twitter.com/hagrin/status/890811118196674562 Can't remember if I mentioned these funnies in another Vegas Dave thread here but here's him getting busted posting "straps of 100s" with obvious 1s in there: https://twitter.com/groovinmahoovin/status/828777190653304833 And here's him posting faked screenshots from the Cantor app: https://twitter.com/groovinmahoovin/status/823655173226512384

For whatever reason a lot of people seem to think I wrote the article, but Ryan Goldberg is an actual journalist with a fairly long writing career. He's written about horse racing in the past and also quite a few non-gambling articles.

I have no idea what's going on with the mods over there, but I routinely have people on Twitter contact me about issues with books, sometimes minor ones like wagers they can't get graded correctly, other times major ones like payout problems. I usually tell them to sign up at SBR and post on the forum, and/or file an SBR complaint. Many of these issues are with random books that don't even advertise at SBR so it's not like SBR could accuse them of signing up to start trouble with advertiser books. I've probably had at least 10 people in the last year or so, possibly even 20 people, tell me "I signed up and posted and I was immediately banned?" In a lot of cases they were accused of being "ghosts" and these people mostly hadn't even heard of SBR before, or only heard about it in passing, so it's not like they were all previously banned for some sort of indiscretion. I guess those numbnuts must assume that anyone new that's coherent enough to write a post about a book complaint must be some sort of ghost of someone who was previously banned???

Yep, and it's pretty hilarious how obvious the BLAP scam is by looking at Fezzik's records. When he joined Pregame in Jan 2013 and announced the BLAP program, BLAP got off to a hot start winning some ridiculous number of units in 2 months, the most hilariously obvious fraudulent part was that Fezzik was still selling picks at LVA and despite losing on LVA on the Super Bowl, Johnny Detroit announced Fezzik won every Super Bowl bet he gave out to BLAP, as BLAP got all of his LVA winners but none of his losers. Then there was a BLAP conference call Johnny published with several people who appeared to be actual BLAP customers, and from that point until the end of the year Fezzik lost his ass, and the last person who claimed to be a BLAP customer announced in January of 2014 he was done with BLAP because he'd lost too much money. From then until August 2015 while tracked by Johnny Detroit and pedophile Jeff Bloss, Fezzik again kicked ass, and then once ComptrBob started tracking in August 2015, from them until the present Fezzik is down around 90 or 95 units. Amazing how he loses every time Bob tracks him or he appears to have actual customers, yet managed to crush during the time there were no actual BLAP customers and the records were tracked by Pregame employees.

On LVA when Joeflex and CB tracked him for 5 years (2005 and 2009-2012) his win rate was about the equivalent of 49.5% vs -110, so as you note fading wouldn't be profitable. I'm not sure why so many people on Twitter/forums think you can profitably fade a dart thrower. In that period of time Joeflex and CB had him around -210 units and now in the 21 or so months CB has tracked BLAP, he's down roughly another -71u, and that includes some grading BS so the actual record would be a bit worse. (There have been times CB didn't receive plays and Fezzik has freerolled on those, arguing that missing winners should be included while ignoring losers, and other random BS like he routinely claims the Greek will let you buy 2 points for 40 cents when it's actually 60 cents.) Surely it's just a coincidence that the only time over the last 12 years Fezzik has won is when his picks were being tracked by Johnny Detroit and/or a pedophile. I imagine things had gotten so bad for Fezzik's sales that he figured having Bob track him might be his best chance at a hail mary, hoping he'd run hot for a short period of time and could say "What can my critics say now that Bob has verified I'm a winner!"

The FezzDAQ was BS because the bets were completely opaque and past posted. Fezzik would go through his bets from earlier in the day and give a portion to Jeff of whichever ones had picked up the most line value. Any idiot will crush at this if they make a bunch of bets and then cherry pick whichever ones happen to have gained the most line value. He used "I'll show you the ticket!" if anyone questioned any of the bets, but while he did have a verifiable ticket, that doesn't really matter if you aren't documenting the bets in a contemporary manner since any dart thrower will get line value on some of their bets by sheer luck. He also routinely overbet the supposed balance in the "FezzDAQ" account, and included stuff like offshore bonuses. At the time it wasn't really that big a deal because he wasn't selling anything, he'd touted on Wong's Sharp Sports Betting and LVA from roughly 2001-2005 but after a terrible 2005 said he would never sell picks again. But now that he's gone full on fraud tout, he occasionally cites the FezzDAQ in his advertising.

And re: what pokerjoe said "what they lose to the tout would otherwise just be going to the books anyway," I've had debates before with knowledgeable people about whether, as winning gamblers, touts benefit or hurt us, and I think you can reasonably argue either way. I think there's a reasonable argument scam touts make sports betting look worse in the eyes of the general public and that helps keep it illegal outside of a few jurisdictions, and the money the touts take from customers is mostly not going back into the betting pools. Some of these touts charge very large fees, for example on Vegas Insider the touts regularly charge $50 a pick. I suppose it's possible by buying a pick, these people are encouraged to bet larger than they would otherwise, which could still help us. In any case, I only have a tiny influence, I post on a couple forums and only have about 3,700 Twitter followers compared to RJ Bell's 131k, or VegasDave's 126k, or Teddy Covers' 25k. I've had countless people tell me they know someone who works for some media outlet or podcast and "I bet you'd be a great guest on the show!" and I say "I mean feel free to put me in touch but these shows all promote touts so I doubt they want me shitting on their past and future guests." One radio host told the guy who suggested me "Oh I can't have that guy on my show, he trolls good honest pro handicappers like Teddy Covers." We have 7 years of ComptrBob tracking that shows Teddy doesn't win, people showed that host the records, and he just accused Bob of cherry picking only the losing seasons. Another supposed "pro bettor" who makes media appearances told me he won't criticize touts because he doesn't want to make enemies. I mean imagine being someone who supposedly makes your money gambling and worrying about what Vegas Runner or Philly Godfather or whoever thinks about you.

This article is a fantastic example of why I do what I do: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/04/gambling-software-helped-amateur-make-1300-in-12-days.html This is a blatant advertisement for a shitty tout service where followers won't win long term anyway, but even if the service was +EV, given this guy's bet sizes, there's no way he would win long term paying the $250 a month they charge. I spoke to a guy recently who lost over $10k betting $150 a game following their crap. They claim to "consistently pick 54-55% winners in all major sports", but if you add up their records it shows they only pick around 52.5-53% cherry picking the best lines from square books like Bovada, BetUS, and sportsbook.ag. A monkey could pick 52.5-53% when you are "fading the public" using lines from those books, which can't be duplicated for profit because 1) the limits at those books are too low to overcome their $250 a month fee and 2) those books will just boot you if you consistently bet those teams, in the case of Bovada quickly switch you to a different line set, and in the case of BetUS or sportsbook.ag possibly just stiff you.

I mentioned a few posts back in the thread that the ban was lifted a few days ago.

For some reason 5D doesn't seem to automatically redirect to the secure site, so just go directly to https://www.5dimes.eu/

As far as dumb things people do gambling, there are worse things people do than follow touts, and there are a handful of touts who appear to be providing +EV picks. With regards to the clowns who don't win, as long as the media are promoting these idiots as winners, I am happy to provide a counterpoint. Yes, I've written about dumb betting systems plenty of times. On EOG, a few years back where was a clown called "Ned" who promoted various betting systems, some of which were Martingale. When Bob exposed flaws in the Martingale systems, stiff scammer EOG mod Ballwonder deleted some of Bob's posts and moved others to "the Asylum." Following that kind of horseshit is likely more harmful than following a tout because the Martingale chases can easily bankrupt you when you lose, and it's absurd that forum mods would go out of their way to protect the hucksters who promote these systems, even if the systems are free. I am inclined to think it's dumber to think you can win at gambling by following a double down when you win system vs following a tout, but I am still happy to explain why Martingale systems don't work. I think people should have access to both sides of the story as opposed to the one sided nonsense that the media, censored forums like Pregame, or censored sites like Twitter present. (Twitter allows touts to block those who track their records.) If someone is too lazy to search for verifiable records, or in the cases where I've provided records but been ignored because "I've followed his last 40 picks and he's 28-12! You must be lying!" then I don't give a shit if they lose their money, no. But I am all for mostly uncensored platforms where information can be freely exchanged.

Fezzik isn't clueless and was actually an advantage player at one point. Several winning bettors I know profitably worked with Fezzik ~10 years ago, so there's value in demonstrating that while he knows a little bit about optimal betting, he doesn't win on the nonsense he sells (and the 5% of his info that is good is surrounded by 95% bullshit.) If a lot of people are asking for Fezzik's records, why shouldn't Bob track them? An example from my perspective -- Vegas Dave is one of the most obvious scammers out there and I think there's a thread here about him. He past posts tickets and sells a martingale system for MLB. It is trivially simple to figure out he's a fraud. Yet I have people constantly asking me if Vegas Dave is legit, because they see media outlets promoting him as some huge winning professional bettor. (I'm never sure if these media outlets just think writing about Vegas Dave will be good for clicks or if Dave pays them.) So why shouldn't I take the time to explain the media is promoting a scammer?

RAS posted a customer survey a year or two ago where they said 57% of the customers reported being able to get the release line at least half the time. If you have 43% of your customers willing to pay a substantial amount for a service where they are taking a worse line more than half the time, that's a pretty big coup. Bob tracks a fair number of different people. Fezzik, Teddy Covers, he tracked Cokin's radio picks a while back. I get asked constantly if I have records for completely random Twitter touts, so there is obviously interest from people who want the records, and Fezzik is one of the more high profile touts out there having won the Hilton Contest 2x and being mentioned in the NY Times and other news sources.

Any idiot can cherry pick the best line by chasing steam and/or using stale numbers. Kelly in Vegas is probably the dumbest, math deficient tout you will find, yet even she is able to grade vs the best of the number because VegasInsider does it for her. More to your point though, you are right that at least Fezzik has a general idea of novice betting concepts like how much particular half points are worth, like he could probably give a reasonable answer as to the value of the 9 in MLB totals. On the other hand, I've seen idiot touts like Dave Cokin and Chris Andrews, who call themselves "legends with 30+ years of experience" and such, not even be able to give a remotely correct answer to trivially simple questions. Cokin recently said the CBB 2 was worth 6% and that meant you shouldn't buy off the 2 for 10 cents. Andrews told a guy last year that taking an NFL game +7.5 -140 was "too much juice" when that number was scalpable vs the current Pinny and 5Dimes alt lines. Andrews also suggested teasing some team -2 up to +4 and was correctly criticized, and when the teaser leg won, as it was going to do 69% of the time or so, he beat his chest about "the trolls" who criticized him. At Vegas teaser prices, each leg needs to win 73.9% of the time on average for the teaser to be breakeven, so a 69% teaser leg is a really terrible bet.

Pretty much that. The only service where I'm aware Bob currently has access to the live plays are Fezzik's BLAP, and even that isn't 100% verifiable as a widely available record because 1) Fezzik includes things like props where there's no line history. There have been times I had prop screens open at the Greek, 5D etc when Fezzik happened to post a prop a few minutes later, and the line was already stale from my unrefreshed screen, like Greek had -130, 5D had -125, and Fezzik released -115. And 2) Pregame's grading standards allow Fezzik to steam chase from square books where an actual customer regularly picking off stale lines from William Hill and similar would probably see himself booted. I've seen him post lines from "Pinny" when Pinny actually moved 7 minutes earlier. I'm not sure if Bob is verifying the lines to be widely available as in 20 months of tracking I haven't noticed him questioning any lines. All that having been said, the props are only a small percentage of plays and the steam chases only seem to be blatantly bad once in a while, so I would suspect Bob's overall tracking of Fezzik is reasonably close to a true WA record. It's not as bad as VegasInsider where they're allowed to use sportsbooks that are closed for the night and such; Pregame used to do that but knocked it off after the Deadspin article. Bob also tracks the SportsMemo touts based on their past-posted recaps and in that instance, there's no way to verify the lines either as the plays aren't timestamped, so the tracking there should basically be considered a "best case scenario" for the touts. However my guess is that the SportsMemo lines are probably fairly reasonable because I looked at the last 10 or so Teddy Covers plays and only 4 beat the closing line vs 4 that lost to the close and 2 that closed at the same line.

Cooler heads have finally prevailed and the ban was lifted.

Correct. Fenic and RJ can't even move a regular season CBB total where the limits are much lower, let alone an NCAA tourney line.

@VegasWATCH on Twitter He is an ObEsE troLL

Despite something like 100+ posters coming to Bob's defense, this nitwit "1" is doubling down, insisting he's "do (sic) an apology" and hasn't lifted the ban. On the topic of Glisan, this is him. Real classy guy. http://www.seattlepi.com/local/article/Cyberstalker-enters-guilty-plea-1150519.php

The funny thing is that CB is only a "tout buster" because the touts happen to lose. If the tout won, Bob would report that too. On the particular set of plays Bob tracked, CFB plays on some radio show, Dave Cokin won, so when asked about what he's tracked of Cokin, Bob mentions that he did very well. Cokin is an overall loser over about 7000 picks on VegasInsider when adjusted for widely available lines so he's highly unlikely to be a winner given that sample, but those aren't "Bob tracked" so Bob gives what he has. In 2006, John Kelly had ComptrBob on whatever show he was hosting at the time and Bob was only given a short segment. Someone asked why Bob wasn't showcased more because he's very knowledgeable, and Fezzik had a rather prescient reply: https://twitter.com/groovinmahoovin/status/842402077380861952/photo/1 "It's better to tell everyone who to bet on, that to showcase a guy who will explain that many of your prior experts are lifetime documented losers vs. WA lines." If all "1" cares about is making money, then yes, promoting shit touts is the way to go.

Reagan's an alcoholic moron. When I objected to notorious scammer Jafar aka Jake Meng posting my personal info to Peeps, Reagan said it was no big deal because "I'd posted Jafar's info first." (1) the drunk had the chronology backwards and 2) posting info about a well known scammer is EXACTLY the same as the scammer posting my info. After I objected, he moved the thread to the "Douchebag" forum and then sent me 15 unanswered PMs in a row. A few years later, some ghost signed up as "Groovin's Arse" or something like that and starts mocking me, the drunk thought it was me and made a bunch of misspelled posts about how he was going to "go nuclear and post incriminating PMs I sent him." The one the poor guy had to edit 3 or 4 times before he got the spelling right. I'm blocked from posting to Peeps but I said on Twitter and EOG he was welcome to post any PM I've ever sent him. The next morning the thread was gone LOL. The only PMs I've ever sent Reagan were about how I once created a ghost to try to fish for info out of Jafar to find out info about his scams (exactly what Kinger did to catch the RX promoting stiff books), which would be completely acceptable behavior anywhere but Peeps, where apparently creating a second account to get info out of a notorious scammer is worse than actually scamming. Par for the course for those morons. Another good one was where his mod Homedog was convinced I'm Oskeim Sports, the tout who deleting losing picks and blamed them on his kid. To answer the question, RTP is moderated pretty well in that no one gets banned unless they're connected to some sort of scammer or completely over the time with racist posts or something similar.