ComptrBob banned from EOG

[Bucky]

I believe Pregame wanted him to track them so he got access to the services and grades based on the line released versus the line availble. The others also gave him a sub.

That is why I brought it up. There is a massive thread there where Bob tracks Fezzik. Interesting site - kind of like a forum for touts or wannabee touts.

[Reno Marty]

Pretty much that.  The only service where I'm aware Bob currently has access to the live plays are Fezzik's BLAP, and even that isn't 100% verifiable as a widely available record because 1) Fezzik includes things like props where there's no line history.  There have been times I had prop screens open at the Greek, 5D etc when Fezzik happened to post a prop a few minutes later, and the line was already stale from my unrefreshed screen, like Greek had -130, 5D had -125, and Fezzik released -115.  And 2) Pregame's grading standards allow Fezzik to steam chase from square books where an actual customer regularly picking off stale lines from William Hill and similar would probably see himself booted.  I've seen him post lines from "Pinny" when Pinny actually moved 7 minutes earlier. 

 

I'm not sure if Bob is verifying the lines to be widely available as in 20 months of tracking I haven't noticed him questioning any lines.  All that having been said, the props are only a small percentage of plays and the steam chases only seem to be blatantly bad once in a while, so I would suspect Bob's overall tracking of Fezzik is reasonably close to a true WA record.  It's not as bad as VegasInsider where they're allowed to use sportsbooks that are closed for the night and such; Pregame used to do that but knocked it off after the Deadspin article. 

 

Bob also tracks the SportsMemo touts based on their past-posted recaps and in that instance, there's no way to verify the lines either as the plays aren't timestamped, so the tracking there should basically be considered a "best case scenario" for the touts. However my guess is that the SportsMemo lines are probably fairly reasonable because I looked at the last 10 or so Teddy Covers plays and only 4 beat the closing line vs 4 that lost to the close and 2 that closed at the same line. 

 

At least in his scamming ways Fezzik knows the value of getting the best number, half a point, etc. That is more than most touts.

[Bucky]

Pretty much that.  The only service where I'm aware Bob currently has access to the live plays are Fezzik's BLAP, and even that isn't 100% verifiable as a widely available record because 1) Fezzik includes things like props where there's no line history.  There have been times I had prop screens open at the Greek, 5D etc when Fezzik happened to post a prop a few minutes later, and the line was already stale from my unrefreshed screen, like Greek had -130, 5D had -125, and Fezzik released -115.  And 2) Pregame's grading standards allow Fezzik to steam chase from square books where an actual customer regularly picking off stale lines from William Hill and similar would probably see himself booted.  I've seen him post lines from "Pinny" when Pinny actually moved 7 minutes earlier. 

 

I'm not sure if Bob is verifying the lines to be widely available as in 20 months of tracking I haven't noticed him questioning any lines.  All that having been said, the props are only a small percentage of plays and the steam chases only seem to be blatantly bad once in a while, so I would suspect Bob's overall tracking of Fezzik is reasonably close to a true WA record.  It's not as bad as VegasInsider where they're allowed to use sportsbooks that are closed for the night and such; Pregame used to do that but knocked it off after the Deadspin article. 

 

Bob also tracks the SportsMemo touts based on their past-posted recaps and in that instance, there's no way to verify the lines either as the plays aren't timestamped, so the tracking there should basically be considered a "best case scenario" for the touts. However my guess is that the SportsMemo lines are probably fairly reasonable because I looked at the last 10 or so Teddy Covers plays and only 4 beat the closing line vs 4 that lost to the close and 2 that closed at the same line.

 

Yes, if someone actually plays at Pinny or some other places that clone or layoff at Pinny you can see the number - refresh the screen - number is still there - try to bet it and it will not confirm at the price and changes. So, it was a number that was not actually there. As far as someone tracking - they are giving the tout credit for an air number and that is not accurate.

 

I have always thought the only way to track touts was to do it yourself and if your results come pretty close to info available then I feel ok about the accuracy.

 

But, is it worth it to do all this tracking? There are no shortcuts - anybody who wants to win needs to compile their own data - make their own line - define their own value - track their own results. I fail to see why RAS sells picks if they are so good or why Bob tracks Fezzik unless it is for entertainment or some type of endorsement or criticism of Fezzik.

[Always Call Heads]

I believe Bob thinks Fezzik is actually somewhat sharp (or was) but not with the lines available to customers. He said in his thread he was just interested to see what the actual performance of their picks was.

[Always Call Heads]

 I fail to see why RAS sells picks if they are so good 

A few hundred thousand per year most likely and he doesn't give out everything he bets. You can sell picks and bet at the same time. They are not mutually exclusive. At this point, they only do halftimes for the most part so they are free to hammer away at lines all morning long.

[KingRevolver]

Fezzik has some good sports opinions. That's it.

[Cdmx]

I fail to see why RAS sells picks if they are so good

 

Look at the markets RAS won at this year.   1h/2h/ Full game cbb totals.   Good luck getting more than  1k on the 1h/2h  and not much more full game.   His full season sub was 9k, probably made 100x touting what could make betting that crap.    Subscribers surely lost money.

[Cdmx]

A few hundred thousand per year most likely and he doesn't give out everything he bets. You can sell picks and bet at the same time. They are not mutually exclusive. At this point, they only do halftimes for the most part so they are free to hammer away at lines all morning long.

 

rofl, no they put out full game sides and lose lose lose.

[Reno Marty]

Look at the markets RAS won at this year.   1h/2h/ Full game cbb totals.   Good luck getting more than  1k on the 1h/2h  and not much more full game.   His full season sub was 9k, probably made 100x touting what could make betting that crap.    Subscribers surely lost money.

 

Right, something doesn't add up. 

[groovinmahoovin]

At least in his scamming ways Fezzik knows the value of getting the best number, half a point, etc. That is more than most touts.

Any idiot can cherry pick the best line by chasing steam and/or using stale numbers.  Kelly in Vegas is probably the dumbest, math deficient tout you will find, yet even she is able to grade vs the best of the number because VegasInsider does it for her.

 

More to your point though, you are right that at least Fezzik has a general idea of novice betting concepts like how much particular half points are worth, like he could probably give a reasonable answer as to the value of the 9 in MLB totals.

 

On the other hand, I've seen idiot touts like Dave Cokin and Chris Andrews, who call themselves "legends with 30+ years of experience" and such, not even be able to give a remotely correct answer to trivially simple questions.  Cokin recently said the CBB 2 was worth 6% and that meant you shouldn't buy off the 2 for 10 cents.  Andrews told a guy last year that taking an NFL game +7.5 -140 was "too much juice" when that number was scalpable vs the current Pinny and 5Dimes alt lines.  Andrews also suggested teasing some team -2 up to +4 and was correctly criticized, and when the teaser leg won, as it was going to do 69% of the time or so, he beat his chest about "the trolls" who criticized him.  At Vegas teaser prices, each leg needs to win 73.9% of the time on average for the teaser to be breakeven, so a 69% teaser leg is a really terrible bet.

[Reno Marty]

groovin, of course they're clueless and worthless. That is why it is bizarre and maybe a little embarrassing that Bob bothers to give them any attention, or takes any time out of his day to try to track them. Just listen to any of those guys speak for 10 seconds and you already know they're not winning. 

[groovinmahoovin]

But, is it worth it to do all this tracking? There are no shortcuts - anybody who wants to win needs to compile their own data - make their own line - define their own value - track their own results. I fail to see why RAS sells picks if they are so good or why Bob tracks Fezzik unless it is for entertainment or some type of endorsement or criticism of Fezzik.

RAS posted a customer survey a year or two ago where they said 57% of the customers reported being able to get the release line at least half the time.  If you have 43% of your customers willing to pay a substantial amount for a service where they are taking a worse line more than half the time, that's a pretty big coup. 

 

Bob tracks a fair number of different people.  Fezzik, Teddy Covers, he tracked Cokin's radio picks a while back.  I get asked constantly if I have records for completely random Twitter touts, so there is obviously interest from people who want the records, and Fezzik is one of the more high profile touts out there having won the Hilton Contest 2x and being mentioned in the NY Times and other news sources. 

[groovinmahoovin]

groovin, of course they're clueless and worthless. That is why it is bizarre and maybe a little embarrassing that Bob bothers to give them any attention, or takes any time out of his day to try to track them. Just listen to any of those guys speak for 10 seconds and you already know they're not winning. 

Fezzik isn't clueless and was actually an advantage player at one point.  Several winning bettors I know profitably worked with Fezzik ~10 years ago, so there's value in demonstrating that while he knows a little bit about optimal betting, he doesn't win on the nonsense he sells (and the 5% of his info that is good is surrounded by 95% bullshit.)  If a lot of people are asking for Fezzik's records, why shouldn't Bob track them?

 

An example from my perspective -- Vegas Dave is one of the most obvious scammers out there and I think there's a thread here about him.  He past posts tickets and sells a martingale system for MLB.  It is trivially simple to figure out he's a fraud.  Yet I have people constantly asking me if Vegas Dave is legit, because they see media outlets promoting him as some huge winning professional bettor.  (I'm never sure if these media outlets just think writing about Vegas Dave will be good for clicks or if Dave pays them.)   So why shouldn't I take the time to explain the media is promoting a scammer?

[Reno Marty]

Groovin', anyone who follows a tout is a complete moron. So why would you take the time to track a tout to tell a bunch of morons something you could already tell them without tracking (that it's a scam)? Would you do this for someone claiming to beat roulette using an "advanced betting system"?

 

Then when it comes to exposing touts as scammers, do you really care about whether someone dumb enough to pay for a tout service loses their money? I can't fathom what goes through such a person's head. Don't they ever wonder why the touts don't just bet the plays themselves since they're all stone cold locks? And from a gambling for entertainment point of view, wouldn't you rather root your own plays instead of someone else's? I almost have more respect for the touts being able to sell themselves as winners than the people being taken.

[FISHHEAD]

Marty, spot on with all thoughts

[Always Call Heads]

rofl, no they put out full game sides and lose lose lose.

Not great this year but not a big sample.

[Cdmx]

Not great this year but not a big sample.

 

their full game sides are down over the last 500 plays in 5 years

[Always Call Heads]

their full game sides are down over the last 500 plays in 5 years

Well there is a nugget of info.

[groovinmahoovin]

Groovin', anyone who follows a tout is a complete moron. So why would you take the time to track a tout to tell a bunch of morons something you could already tell them without tracking (that it's a scam)? Would you do this for someone claiming to beat roulette using an "advanced betting system"?

 

Then when it comes to exposing touts as scammers, do you really care about whether someone dumb enough to pay for a tout service loses their money? I can't fathom what goes through such a person's head. Don't they ever wonder why the touts don't just bet the plays themselves since they're all stone cold locks? And from a gambling for entertainment point of view, wouldn't you rather root your own plays instead of someone else's? I almost have more respect for the touts being able to sell themselves as winners than the people being taken.

As far as dumb things people do gambling, there are worse things people do than follow touts, and there are a handful of touts who appear to be providing +EV picks.  With regards to the clowns who don't win, as long as the media are promoting these idiots as winners, I am happy to provide a counterpoint. 

 

Yes, I've written about dumb betting systems plenty of times.  On EOG, a few years back where was a clown called "Ned" who promoted various betting systems, some of which were Martingale.  When Bob exposed flaws in the Martingale systems, stiff scammer EOG mod Ballwonder deleted some of Bob's posts and moved others to "the Asylum."  Following that kind of horseshit is likely more harmful than following a tout because the Martingale chases can easily bankrupt you when you lose, and it's absurd that forum mods would go out of their way to protect the hucksters who promote these systems, even if the systems are free.  I am inclined to think it's dumber to think you can win at gambling by following a double down when you win system vs following a tout, but I am still happy to explain why Martingale systems don't work.

 

I think people should have access to both sides of the story as opposed to the one sided nonsense that the media, censored forums like Pregame, or censored sites like Twitter present.  (Twitter allows touts to block those who track their records.)  If someone is too lazy to search for verifiable records, or in the cases where I've provided records but been ignored because "I've followed his last 40 picks and he's 28-12!  You must be lying!" then I don't give a shit if they lose their money, no.  But I am all for mostly uncensored platforms where information can be freely exchanged.

[Always Call Heads]

RAS put out a chart a couple of years ago that showed the winnings percentages for half points, full points after the line move and showed them to be profitable. However, he cherry picked a timeframe where the picks were 59% over three years so was a nice sleight of hand. Ed is a very clever boy.

[Cdmx]

a 59% basketball play will be profitable at 1pt worse,  a 55% one won't.

[Always Call Heads]

a 59% basketball play will be profitable at 1pt worse,  a 55% one won't.

I was surprised no one called him out on that. He posted it on his site. 

[Biff42]

JK was trying to get Computer Bob reinstated. Some Honcho at EOG named "#1" had him banned. Anyone heard any new news?

[pokerjoe]

Marty, I tend to agree with you about leaving tout customers alone, because what they lose to the tout would otherwise just be going to the books anyway.

 

The exception is, as groovin points out, the truly dangerous stupidity of chase systems, and the boiler room tactics involved when touts get their claws into customers.

[Bucky]

The list of unscrupulous touts is long. The list of crooked tracking websites or endorsements to promote a shady tout is pretty long as well.

 

The amount of disinformation is massive!