MonkeyF0cker Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 http://forums.eog.com/showthread.php/356558-My-Knowledge-Of-A-Bookie-To-Be-Successful?highlight=laying+off+action a great read. Wantitallformoi- Here is where you are mathematically WRONG. You view each GAME as a independant event. Smart bookmakers, with large enough bankrolls, veiw each game as 1 part of a larger series, forming "the long run". The bookmaker will win exactly 50% of those imbalanced games, and therefore, it plays out mathematically just as though he had EVERY game balanced...but, by not moving the number, he has collected for himself 4-5 times the amount of PROFIT (vig) than he would have given away using your Method of balancing EACH AND EVERY GAME! YOUR WAY (with a two game scenario)$10,000 on BAltimore+3$90,0000 on INDY-3 YOUR WAY suggests that it is smart for the bookmaker to call off 80,000 of his action, and "guarantee" himself ($1,000 profit), I say guarantee as if we are talking about post up money. GAME 290,000 on Denver-4.510,000 on Miami +4.5 YOUR WAY again suggest calling off 80,000 (80% of your action, you've generated by advertising, promoting, and earning a solid reputation) in order that you GUARANTEE yourself $1,000 profit. So, your way, we have NO RISK and guarantee a grand total profit of $2000 of 220,000, a hold of 1%...wooooo hooooo. THE SHARP BOOKMAKERS WAY(given a large enough bankroll) GAME 1$10,000 on BAltimore+3$90,0000 on INDY-3 GAME 290,000 on Denver-4.510,000 on Miami +4.5 THE MATHEMATICALLY SAVY bookmaker keeps it all, expecting to win 50% of all decisions, regardless of how heavy or inbalanced the sides are...He splits here, losing 79,000 on the Indy game and Winning 89,000 on the Miami game..for a NET PROFIT of 10,000 of of 220000 (net hold of 4.54%), the mathematically expected vig earned by a good bookmaker So, unless you just plain DON"T believe in math, you're way is WRONG! Take these two examples and do the calculations over 2000 games and see which results you like best, and stop calling sharp bookmakers, idiots, Please! :+signs9-1 Iron. Jesus Christ. Anyone quoting wanti as a reference should really question their sanity. Such a simplified, dopey scenario. The book forgot to move the fucking line? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timely Hitting Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Jesus Christ. Anyone quoting wanti as a reference should really question their sanity. Such a simplified, dopey scenario. The book forgot to move the fucking line?that guy is critiquing wantits opinion you dope. Read the entire thread. You think I'd quote wantit? Good lord. Ironically enough by ripping that guys opinion you are the one siding with and backing wantit lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sol Aristatel Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Tity just called Monkey a dope. It's fucking on now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Nope you're out too.....fuck twitterPretty sure you are one of two guys....answer me this...did you ever post in the Costa Rica forum at therx and did you play in the 1st annual CR poster softball game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timely Hitting Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Tity just called Monkey a dope. It's fucking on now!nah monkey doesn't think I'm retarded like he feels about you lol And I'm going to be home in 20 minutes from work so don't have much time left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Nope you're out too.....fuck twitterI give up but you're a Vegas guy correct ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 you should never lay off action. that is what would be considered scared bookmaking, imo. boot the player and move on, but don't lay off his action. if you are laying off a players action, you have no business booking his plays. you have gone from being the business man, to the gambler, in that situation. a good bookmaker isn't in this to gamble. you give away every ounce of edge you have when you lay off action. That is just pure nonsense. When you're taking one sided action as a bookmaker, you're the one gambling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 I give up but you're a Vegas guy correct ?Dope...Delux Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Tity just called Monkey a dope. It's fucking on now! No. I called wanti a dope. He's the one that wrote it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Pretty sure you are one of two guys....answer me this...did you ever post in the Costa Rica forum at therx and did you play in the 1st annual CR poster softball game?More conspiracy theories lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pocketrockets Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Whenever people say we need more female posters because iag is the only one I always laugh and ask... why do people ignore Blue? With his sensitivity it's a lock. spot on but I meant HOT female posters... this bluefuck not my type pal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Monkeyfvckhead what are you and your dog watching on tv tonight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Meatman Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 That is just pure nonsense. When you're taking one sided action as a bookmaker, you're the one gambling.How can you be gambling when you are getting 10 to 11? That's called +EV. Isn't it past your bead time son? Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeybagadonuts Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Wantitall got absolutely buried in that thread. Worth a re-read Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sol Aristatel Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 No. I called wanti a dope. He's the one that wrote it.Read again. Timely called you a dope. I was referencing that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timely Hitting Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 That is just pure nonsense. When you're taking one sided action as a bookmaker, you're the one gambling.How so? So you're viewing bookmaking as a collection of singular events as opposed to a collection of millions of events? When taking unbalanced action you should be winning 50% of those - roughly. Therefore they should balance eachother out over a large enough sample to matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timely Hitting Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Wantitall got absolutely buried in that thread. Worth a re-readyes and monkey is very confused and thinks wantit wrote what I quoted. That thread is a great read and I recommend it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Oh. Ok. Just saw his name on it. Either way. Totally simplified. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Screw Andrews Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Pretty sure you are one of two guys....answer me this...did you ever post in the Costa Rica forum at therx and did you play in the 1st annual CR poster softball game?No and no. but I hae been reading forums much longer than posting at them....I'm just old and cranky now so it's fun to post...and I have no clue in case you haven't noticed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 How so? So you're viewing bookmaking as a collection of singular events as opposed to a collection of millions of events? When taking unbalanced action you should be winning 50% of those - roughly. Therefore they should balance eachother out over a large enough sample to matter. Roughly 50%? How do you figure? The line that was loaded up on was off market. That's why your math is off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 I knew it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Screw Andrews Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 I give up but you're a Vegas guy correct ?No East Vegas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pocketrockets Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Welcome to TGF Screw. Always nice to read the input of the old school crew. Just avoid the cretins and this place is nice enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timely Hitting Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Oh. Ok. Just saw his name on it. Either way. Totally simplified.assuming an efficient market - which can be debated since the US fucked gamblers - bookmaking is very simple. It was certainly easier with higher volume but it's still not tricky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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