rdalert447 Posted September 8, 2019 Report Share Posted September 8, 2019 Camper, I had the same question. In order to follow, should I be betting with the lean or against? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JED Posted September 8, 2019 Report Share Posted September 8, 2019 should I be betting with the lean or against? with Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdalert447 Posted September 8, 2019 Report Share Posted September 8, 2019 Thank you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguesser Posted September 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 8, 2019 I failed some classes in school so excuse my idiocy. Is the premise to look at the teams who the identified teams are playing? For example Philly - 10.5 (10/wa)? So the suggested lean is Washington or Philly? anyway fire away at my stupidity bit I thought I’d check to be sure I’m looking at this correctly. Please and thank you.No problem. In your example, Carib is leaning to Philly, they want Redskin money, so ideally you'd bet Philly at another book with the better line. Whoever they want you to bet with them, because they are shading the line, you bet the opposite, ideally somewhere else with a better number. Last year, I was betting who Carib wanted me to bet with them, and got my clock cleaned there, but won money on the other side elsewhere when there was a key difference. Or I'd bet at Carib if I liked the side they wanted me to bet. This year I am just noting their leans, but not betting there, and seeing if what happened last year repeats. Hope that makes sense and clarifies things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Raver Camper Posted September 8, 2019 Report Share Posted September 8, 2019 No problem. In your example, Carib is leaning to Philly, they want Redskin money, so ideally you'd bet Philly at another book with the better line. Whoever they want you to bet with them, because they are shading the line, you bet the opposite, ideally somewhere else with a better number. Last year, I was betting who Carib wanted me to bet with them, and got my clock cleaned there, but won money on the other side elsewhere when there was a key difference. Or I'd bet at Carib if I liked the side they wanted me to bet. This year I am just noting their leans, but not betting there, and seeing if what happened last year repeats. Hope that makes sense and clarifies things. Yes, thanks a bunch’ Your initial post clarified it. I’m just a scatter brain at time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERBtheGREAT Posted September 8, 2019 Report Share Posted September 8, 2019 If all books have bears -3 and Carib has -2.5, they want bears action so take the packers. That seems to be the jist of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguesser Posted September 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 8, 2019 If all books have bears -3 and Carib has -2.5, they want bears action so take the packers. That seems to be the jist of it.Yes. Especially when they differ off key numbers, or have more than a 1/2 point difference off any number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdalert447 Posted September 8, 2019 Report Share Posted September 8, 2019 Awesome stuff. Thank you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguesser Posted September 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 8, 2019 As of RIGHT NOW! I am using SBR Odds, Vegas Insider, and VSIN for a mix of offshore and US lines. Vikes -4.5(3.5 W/A)Philly -10.5(10 W/A, a 0.5 here and there)Jets -3(2.5 W/A , a juiced 3 here and there)TB PK(-1 W/A, even a few 1.5 and 2. Only other place I see Pk is DraftKings)KC -4(3.5 W/A, even some 3 heavy juice. Don't see any other 4)Rams -2.5(1.5, 2 W/A, 2.5 at Fanduel)Seat -10(9.5 W/A)LAC -7(6.5 W/A, Don't see a 7 anywhere else)Dall -6.5(7 W/A, even some 7.5, 6.5 nowhere else)Denv -1(2, 2.5 W/A)Early game finale: Vikes -4 (-3.5 W/A. They want Atl Money.) Play is Minny -3.5 elsewherePhilly -10.5(-10 W/A, although some 10.5 around) I'd pass, but they want Wash money so small on Philly -10Jets -3 (-2.5 W/A) They've held 3, they want you to bet Buff. Play is Jets -2.5KC-4 (-3.5 W/A) Play on KC -3.5Rams-2.5(1.5, 2 W/A) Play on Rams -1.5 Others are same at Carib and W/A. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDTrains Posted September 8, 2019 Report Share Posted September 8, 2019 You had one job ... POS Jets kicker has missed a 45 yard attempt and an XP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguesser Posted September 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 8, 2019 Carib Late game report: They really have no positions. I guess closest is LAC -6.5, when W/A is 6, but they moved down along with everyone else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguesser Posted September 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 8, 2019 Carib Late game report: They really have no positions. I guess closest is LAC -6.5, when W/A is 6, but they moved down along with everyone else. I'll amend that. They have stuck with Dall -6.5(W/A -7). Bookmaker has juiced -6.5 so I didn't notice, everywhere else is 7. Play on NYG +7 elsewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milwaukee mike Posted September 8, 2019 Report Share Posted September 8, 2019 looks like 3-1 on the early games? good stuff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguesser Posted September 9, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2019 Nothing on the NE game. Looks like a 3-2 day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdalert447 Posted September 9, 2019 Report Share Posted September 9, 2019 Well done, Guesser! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguesser Posted September 9, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2019 For MNF: NO -7(-6.5 W/A)Denv -1(-2.5 W/A) Lets see if Carib is taking a position or just slow moving. Tune in tomorrow night for answers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguesser Posted September 9, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2019 NO-7(-6.5 W/A, but enough 7 out there for me to say this is not significant) Denv(-3) (No Carib lean on this one) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguesser Posted September 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Nothing on the Thurs night Caro- TB game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
housepicks Posted September 12, 2019 Report Share Posted September 12, 2019 Thanks for continuing to track this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Hustle Posted September 13, 2019 Report Share Posted September 13, 2019 what about the 5dimes lean? they had tb +7.5 heavily juiced. probably car wins by dd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAUS Posted September 13, 2019 Report Share Posted September 13, 2019 Nothing on the Thurs night Caro- TB gameNothing? They had TB +7 EV. BAUS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milwaukee mike Posted September 13, 2019 Report Share Posted September 13, 2019 what about the 5dimes lean? they had tb +7.5 heavily juiced. probably car wins by dd they do that for teaser protection Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted September 13, 2019 Report Share Posted September 13, 2019 Nothing? They had TB +7 EV. BAUSGood work BAUS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Lingus Posted September 13, 2019 Report Share Posted September 13, 2019 I remember hearing something about the linesmaker at carib last year, iirc it was that he was real sharp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguesser Posted September 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2019 Nothing? They had TB +7 EV. BAUSWas that right at kickoff? I stopped looking about 10 minutes before KO. They were -7 with their reg juice(-105), and I saw plenty of 6.5 and 7 at other places. Didn't seem like they were taking any kind of position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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