Machiavelli Posted August 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 And by the way, kamalla is a terrible VP pick if your goal is to win a national election. Only matters what MI, PA and AZ thinks about her......(for the most part) And while her record in the Senate was as far left as anyone can vote, that always happens when a candidate is using their time in the Senate as a stepping stone (so as not to hurt them in their primary) But folks know her record as being pretty tough, fair in Law/Order matters, and she has that built-in credibility there. I do think that the Rep machine will do a great job of hammering her, but it just may not matter too much. In grabbing a stronger black vote in MI and PA and more hispanics in AZ, the left can narrowly win this election with relative ease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machiavelli Posted August 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 https://www.270towin.com/maps/eAOwj This be the 2016 map flipping MI/PA/AZ Becomes 279 for Biden, making AZ 11 the decider. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 https://www.270towin.com/maps/eAOwj This be the 2016 map flipping MI/PA/AZ Becomes 279 for Biden, making AZ 11 the decider.I can't see it. I think Michigan and Minn are going trump, at a minimum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machiavelli Posted August 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 I can't see it. I think Michigan and Minn are going trump, at a minimum. I cannot speak for Minn and prob not for sure on MI/PA (but I do know many folks there) And from what I gather, while PA is viewed as Pennsyltucky outside of the big cities, there is enough energy in the big spots to take that state back. As far as MI, that Gov should be voted against due to banning things like seeds during the pandemic, but there seems to be enough built-in infrastructure to get out the necessary votes to reclaim MI as well. I know people like Chuck Todd, etc, try pointing to more states beyond MI, PA, AZ, but I have zeroed in on those three as to why it's pretty much a done deal. Add in NC and/or GA or FLA and tthat will just be embarrassing to Reps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 I know I am basing a large part of my opinion (on AZ at least) on my step-sister's network of Hispanic churches in Southern/Central AZ and the greater PHX area, but.... when you see hardcore Hispanic Christians who strongly detest abortion come to accept Dem candidates, you know there is an issue. So it made me wonder why. And in observing the mindsets from people all over + what I do know about electoral history, it makes me expect MI/PA/AZ to go Biden. FLA/GA are in play, with FLA maybe close to 50/50. But what's crazy is, Biden won't even need FLA to win this thing. NOW, if you tell me Trump is in play in VA, and then all bets are off. How many of those hispanic christians voted for trump last time, i'd say almost none. As far as your kamalla comments go, 90%+ of voters are not aware of what her former stances were on "law and order", they only know what they see and hear right now, which is that she's the most liberal member of the senate, a zealot. You are in a la la land bubble as well machi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 I cannot speak for Minn and prob not for sure on MI/PA (but I do know many folks there) And from what I gather, while PA is viewed as Pennsyltucky outside of the big cities, there is enough energy in the big spots to take that state back. As far as MI, that Gov should be voted against due to banning things like seeds during the pandemic, but there seems to be enough built-in infrastructure to get out the necessary votes to reclaim MI as well. I know people like Chuck Todd, etc, try pointing to more states beyond MI, PA, AZ, but I have zeroed in on those three as to why it's pretty much a done deal. Add in NC and/or GA or FLA and tthat will just be embarrassing to Reps. Dont ever use the name Chuck Todd again as representing anything or any viewpoint which is worthy of honest debate. that would be like me saying "you know sean hannity says Ny is in play". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machiavelli Posted August 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 How many of those hispanic christians voted for trump last time, i'd say almost none. As far as your kamalla comments go, 90%+ of voters are not aware of what her former stances were on "law and order", they only know what they see and hear right now, which is that she's the most liberal member of the senate, a zealot. You are in a la la land bubble as well machi. They routinely vote R, actually. Hardcore in fact. I am telling you, people are letting the MSM subtley influence them enough to think of Trump as too bombastic/erratic and Dems are more mature/responsible. And with the MSM basically controlling the Overton Window, they'll get away with the stuff that you/tails criticize about the left. Because while y'all are mostly spot on, that does not matter when most aren't too involved/aware in the minutiae of things. Pandemic has been highly effective for the Dems for people to become a bit more selfish----which normally favors Reps---but except now, it's a prevailing attitude of people wanting to believe Dem promises of handouts/giveaways/etc. I very well could be wrong in my assessments and like always, throw them out there to see if I can be shown in error of my thinking, but I have yet to see where data/psychology favors the Reps. I see where it very well should, but just don't think it will be enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machiavelli Posted August 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 Dont ever use the name Chuck Todd again as representing anything or any viewpoint which is worthy of honest debate. that would be like me saying "you know sean hannity says Ny is in play". Hehehehehe I agree. But Todd had a map the other day that I am sure garnered a lot of attention, so it was on my mind as an example of people trying to showcase Biden as winning 330 or so electoral votes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaiseThese Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 Here is an interesting chart , it may or may not mean anything to you.It compares RCP averages in swing states at this timeTrump/Biden 2020 vs Trump/Hillary 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 They routinely vote R, actually. Hardcore in fact. I am telling you, people are letting the MSM subtley influence them enough to think of Trump as too bombastic/erratic and Dems are more mature/responsible. And with the MSM basically controlling the Overton Window, they'll get away with the stuff that you/tails criticize about the left. Because while y'all are mostly spot on, that does not matter when most aren't too involved/aware in the minutiae of things. Pandemic has been highly effective for the Dems for people to become a bit more selfish----which normally favors Reps---but except now, it's a prevailing attitude of people wanting to believe Dem promises of handouts/giveaways/etc. I very well could be wrong in my assessments and like always, throw them out there to see if I can be shown in error of my thinking, but I have yet to see where data/psychology favors the Reps. I see where it very well should, but just don't think it will be enough.A lot of psychology favors Trump here. The protests may have passed Covid for the biggest concern. The Kenosha riots do resonate in the west side of Michigan, it’s right across the lake. With a basic antenna, you can get Milwaukee TV. Kids go back to school this week here, so there is some sort of normalcy, that moves the protests up. Trump’s fate will be decided in Detroit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 A lot of psychology favors Trump here. The protests may have passed Covid for the biggest concern. The Kenosha riots do resonate in the west side of Michigan, it’s right across the lake. With a basic antenna, you can get Milwaukee TV. Kids go back to school this week here, so there is some sort of normalcy, that moves the protests up. Trump’s fate will be decided in Detroit.Protests are by far the biggest concern. Rasmussen poll showed this very clearly (yeah yeah it's slightly biased to the right, but it the difference was huge - not debatable). The hit that trump took on COVID already happened. There is really only upside from here for him. Even a second wave may help him, so long as the death rate is as low as it is now. Bidens response will be that we need to shut the county down again, and there are very very few people on board with that shit. Trump wins by wanting to keep the economy open. If no second wave, it becomes about getting the economy on track - big win for trump. The only exception is a second wave that is extremely deadly, and that kills primarily young healthy people, like the 1918 flu. That scenario is possible but looking very unlikely now. Thank God. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 Protests are by far the biggest concern. Rasmussen poll showed this very clearly (yeah yeah it's slightly biased to the right, but it the difference was huge - not debatable). The hit that trump took on COVID already happened. There is really only upside from here for him. Even a second wave may help him, so long as the death rate is as low as it is now. Bidens response will be that we need to shut the county down again, and there are very very few people on board with that shit. Trump wins by wanting to keep the economy open. If no second wave, it becomes about getting the economy on track - big win for trump. The only exception is a second wave that is extremely deadly, and that kills primarily young healthy people, like the 1918 flu. That scenario is possible but looking very unlikely now. Thank God.And Biden is on record for mandatory masks and shutting everything down again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 DP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 They routinely vote R, actually. Hardcore in fact. I am telling you, people are letting the MSM subtley influence them enough to think of Trump as too bombastic/erratic and Dems are more mature/responsible. And with the MSM basically controlling the Overton Window, they'll get away with the stuff that you/tails criticize about the left. Because while y'all are mostly spot on, that does not matter when most aren't too involved/aware in the minutiae of things. Pandemic has been highly effective for the Dems for people to become a bit more selfish----which normally favors Reps---but except now, it's a prevailing attitude of people wanting to believe Dem promises of handouts/giveaways/etc. I very well could be wrong in my assessments and like always, throw them out there to see if I can be shown in error of my thinking, but I have yet to see where data/psychology favors the Reps. I see where it very well should, but just don't think it will be enough. I just dont think your opinion can be valued, you talked about how great bernie was, you loved buttboy for awhile, I think you even thought kamalla had a shot and thought she would really connect with dems. While you appear to love to talk about politics, I've never noticed any core of beliefs in you. And now you say there's a large group of hard core republican hispanics in AZ, but they dont like Trump. As the great intellectual Joe Biden says..."cmon man". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 A lot of psychology favors Trump here. The protests may have passed Covid for the biggest concern. The Kenosha riots do resonate in the west side of Michigan, it’s right across the lake. With a basic antenna, you can get Milwaukee TV. Kids go back to school this week here, so there is some sort of normalcy, that moves the protests up. Trump’s fate will be decided in Detroit.Do you think Bidens racist past will hurt him in detroit? Or that trumps appeal to black men especially is real? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 Do you think Bidens racist past will hurt him in detroit? Or that trumps appeal to black men especially is real?I don’t think it’ll hurt Biden. The Kamala VP pick won’t help him there though. Biden’s best weapon is Whitmer, she’ll do anything to hurt Trump. It’s coming down to how many in Detroit show up to vote, and how the Metro area votes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasson621 Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 And Biden is on record for mandatory masks and shutting everything down again.Yes but does he know that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 Yes but does he know that?Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaiseThese Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 I just dont think your opinion can be valued, you talked about how great bernie was, you loved buttboy for awhile, I think you even thought kamalla had a shot and thought she would really connect with dems. While you appear to love to talk about politics, I've never noticed any core of beliefs in you. And now you say there's a large group of hard core republican hispanics in AZ, but they dont like Trump. As the great intellectual Joe Biden says..."cmon man". Its funny MIke...Mach has had some good takes over the years but reading his take on why Trump only has10-25 percent chance is almost cringeworthy. .I feel like Im reading ideas from a Democrat operative sent in suppress Trump enthusiasm because the shit makes no sense...it is so backwards and illogical to me. I will say that if god forbid his views turn out to be accurate then I am truly insane and have no perspective of reality. It wont even matter that Biden wins because my insane ass will just move out west where I can get free shit and steal from stores without repercussions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machiavelli Posted August 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 It'd be nice to be wrong, Reps win everything, but with enough Dems to make sure they are forced to work together, and we really get to see Trump deal making prowess in term 2. However, other forces are in play. And have been supremely well-executed. Sorry, boys, it is what it is and I call 'em like I see 'em. Too many folks on the Center/Right side have been made to feel comfortable with Biden/Dems. As well as the Center/Left folks who flocked to Trump last go round. President Trump had a beautiful swan song to close out the RNC. Unfortunately, that will be his last great moment in the public eye. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 It'd be nice to be wrong, Reps win everything, but with enough Dems to make sure they are forced to work together, and we really get to see Trump deal making prowess in term 2. However, other forces are in play. And have been supremely well-executed. Sorry, boys, it is what it is and I call 'em like I see 'em. Too many folks on the Center/Right side have been made to feel comfortable with Biden/Dems. As well as the Center/Left folks who flocked to Trump last go round. President Trump had a beautiful swan song to close out the RNC. Unfortunately, that will be his last great moment in the public eye. i find it amusing you always make profound statements, but you never explain why, other than 'there are forces at play". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machiavelli Posted August 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 i find it amusing you always make profound statements, but you never explain why, other than 'there are forces at play". Our President has helped further develop parts of my hyperbolic nature. Reading The Art of the Deal was an eye opener for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 Well, well, well, national poll suppression now taking place, the networks and others have suddenly stopped releasing polls, because trump is now gaining or even leading. You can bet they're still polling during critical convention periods, they're just not releasing them if they dont like the results. it's not going to save them. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/polling-firm-rasmussen-warns-about-national-poll-suppression Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaiseThese Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 Cmon Man! Who is voting for this guy to negotiate with China and other world powers? 19seconds say 1000 words https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=emb_title&v=tyb_zNZW2R8&app=desktop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted August 31, 2020 Report Share Posted August 31, 2020 Many states count absentees almost as fast and do report on election night. most of these corrupt mail in ballot states are blue states Trump wont win anyway, it will effect congressional races more than the national.Here in Colorado it's all mail voting and has been for years and it's reported right away. (you can drop off ballot instead of mailing it). You get an email when your vote is counted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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