yisman Posted August 21, 2016 Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 link or GTFO!! http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicapper-think-tank/163004-why-dont-books-keep-everything-half-points.html Seems mathy is learning by combing through my old posts. I am flattered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viejo Dinosaur Posted August 21, 2016 Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 By dealing integer totals that permit pushes instead of shading by a half point? For MLB and NFL, 10% of all their total action (and possibly spread action for NFL) ends up pushing instead of them earning vig. Do they really think bettors are turned off so much by having lopsided lines instead of -110/-110? In Vegas maybe, but offshore? Look at the Brewers/Mariners total right now. Over 9 -121, Under 9 +110. That could be O9.5 +105 / U 9.5 -115 which is even less lopsided. Don't tell me it's risk aversion and that they don't want to get middled. It's one fucking baseball game. Didn't a Superbowl game push a few years ago? There goes how many millions in vig. When are these nitwits going to catch on?By dealing integer totals that permit pushes instead of shading by a half point? For MLB and NFL, 10% of all their total action (and possibly spread action for NFL) ends up pushing instead of them earning vig. Do they really think bettors are turned off so much by having lopsided lines instead of -110/-110? In Vegas maybe, but offshore? Look at the Brewers/Mariners total right now. Over 9 -121, Under 9 +110. That could be O9.5 +105 / U 9.5 -115 which is even less lopsided. Don't tell me it's risk aversion and that they don't want to get middled. It's one fucking baseball game. Didn't a Superbowl game push a few years ago? There goes how many millions in vig. When are these nitwits going to catch on?Those nitwits do pretty well.... Have you ever sat on the other side of the counter? Very rare to get middles on baseball totals... I understand what your point is but it is not all black and white like you think... Good luck going forward... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reno Marty Posted August 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 Those nitwits do pretty well.... Have you ever sat on the other side of the counter? Very rare to get middles on baseball totals... I understand what your point is but it is not all black and white like you think... Good luck going forward... No kidding they do well. Booking guys like Hangover is a license to print money. But they could print more. Do you mean rare that the books move their totals to allow for the possibility of them being middled, or rare that such middles could happen because games rarely land on the total? They land on the total about 12% of the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viejo Dinosaur Posted August 21, 2016 Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 Totals fall all the time n NBA and foots....not so much MLB... I was always told not to be afraid of numbers, just have a little respect... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reno Marty Posted August 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 Totals fall all the time n NBA and foots....not so much MLB... I was always told not to be afraid of numbers, just have a little respect... Even if you were right, we see the same integer effect in NBA and NFL. You'd think in the NBA of all places you'd ALWAYS get a non-integer total given the half point is worth the least of all the sports, which, by the way, tells you something about how often the game lands on the total VD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reno Marty Posted August 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 NBA half point worth 4 cents. This tells you it's not worth very much because the odds of the game landing on the total are slim. MLB it's worth almost 30 cents. What does this tell you?NFL is a different beast given special numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ChrisHarvard Posted August 21, 2016 Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 Why don't you start booking? You know everything there is to know, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hangover Posted August 21, 2016 Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 No kidding they do well. Booking guys like Hangover is a license to print money. But they could print more. . Book me then and get rich Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hangover Posted August 21, 2016 Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 Why don't you start booking? You know everything there is to know, right? Exactly. Another middle chasing fuk who thinks he knows everything because he lives in Vegas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted August 21, 2016 Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 Exactly. Another middle chasing fuk who thinks he knows everything because he lives in Vegas pretty sure he lives in canada Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted August 21, 2016 Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 Why don't you start booking? You know everything there is to know, right? that side of the counter is reserved for folk like you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted August 21, 2016 Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 Don't think the books are real confident in their numbers on totals and are clearly afraid of the big money these daays. I don't think they think they'd come out better off with such a strategy. And since you want them to have such a strategy, they are probably right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reno Marty Posted August 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 I would love to book guys like Hangover and Harvard. But, uh, I think I won't risk my very comfortable life by breaking the law. Fucking idiots... If I thought it wasn't profitable to book your bets, then I would also have to think you're beating your bookies. And I'm sure that's happening. Always Call Heads, it has nothing to do with the confidence in their numbers. What book these days even makes their own number? The Brewers/Mariners example I gave features a different total but the exact same EV (or rather -EV for the bettor). It's well documented what a half point in MLB is worth. If you don't know how to do it just look at Pinnacle's drop down menu. You think a small time shop could do worse than following Pinnacle's pricing for half points? ACH... it makes little difference to me whether they follow this strategy or not. I'm taking the book's perspective. If I ran a book I would not deal integer totals, especially integer totals that already have "imbalanced odds" like the Brewers/Mariners game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reno Marty Posted August 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 Can't believe I'm discussing this with someone who has an Asian in teddy bear clothing fetish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hangover Posted August 21, 2016 Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 I would love to book guys like Hangover and Harvard. But, uh, I think I won't risk my very comfortable life by breaking the law. Fucking idiots... If I thought it wasn't profitable to book your bets, then I would also have to think you're beating your bookies. And I'm sure that's happening. lol nice cop out....guarantee you would be living in the streets with the other broke fuks in Vegas if you were to book me and Harvard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted August 21, 2016 Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 I would love to book guys like Hangover and Harvard. But, uh, I think I won't risk my very comfortable life by breaking the law. Fucking idiots... If I thought it wasn't profitable to book your bets, then I would also have to think you're beating your bookies. And I'm sure that's happening. Always Call Heads, it has nothing to do with the confidence in their numbers. What book these days even makes their own number? The Brewers/Mariners example I gave features a different total but the exact same EV (or rather -EV for the bettor). It's well documented what a half point in MLB is worth. If you don't know how to do it just look at Pinnacle's drop down menu. You think a small time shop could do worse than following Pinnacle's pricing for half points? ACH... it makes little difference to me whether they follow this strategy or not. I'm taking the book's perspective. If I ran a book I would not deal integer totals, especially integer totals that already have "imbalanced odds" like the Brewers/Mariners game. I think the books know that they are on the wrong side of the computer power. They can only react. You say the squares outnumber the sharps but that is not the case money wise. They are clearly worried about you computer boys slamming them when they get any number off. They don't want to take the risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plommer Posted August 21, 2016 Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 Can't believe I'm discussing this with someone who has an Asian in teddy bear clothing fetish. Mathy you're still a likeable See you next Tuesday . Ok, not really. Your arrogance is a little much sometimes. Other than that you're swell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reno Marty Posted August 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 I think the books know that they are on the wrong side of the computer power. They can only react. You say the squares outnumber the sharps but that is not the case money wise. They are clearly worried about you computer boys slamming them when they get any number off. They don't want to take the risk. If they're this dumb, then that explains why they are scared to go off integers. You could be right. But they're morons. Not surprising though -- yet to meet an intelligent bookmaker in my life. Enjoy it that way. Alex C at BetOnline was the only one I met who had a clue. Wonder what rogue country he's in these days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hangover Posted August 21, 2016 Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 I am sure he is swell guy...arrogant cunts make for good banter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reno Marty Posted August 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 Mathy you're still a likeable See you next Tuesday . Ok, not really. Your arrogance is a little much sometimes. Other than that you're swell. :lebrick Says the guy arrogant enough to justify stealing from ATMs because "fuck the banks". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plommer Posted August 21, 2016 Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 Says the guy arrogant enough to justify stealing from ATMs because "fuck the banks". LOL Mathy, plommer is all about having fun. It was alot of fun spending the banks money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted August 21, 2016 Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 If they're this dumb, then that explains why they are scared to go off integers. You could be right. But they're morons. Not surprising though -- yet to meet an intelligent bookmaker in my life. Enjoy it that way. Alex C at BetOnline was the only one I met who had a clue. Wonder what rogue country he's in these days. I think we are only basically talking about Bookmaker. Every other books worries about how fast they move their line after Bookmaker. Bookmaker does not want to put out any numbers for you and durito and your kind to slam. They don't pay enough to go up against the computer army. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reno Marty Posted August 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 lol nice cop out....guarantee you would be living in the streets with the other broke fuks in Vegas if you were to book me and Harvard Says the guy who doesn't care about half points because when he's caped a game to go over it goes over. Yeah you'd be a tough guy to book. All I'd have to do is shade the total 2 half points at 40c each, getting you serious "plus money" and have you double down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reno Marty Posted August 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 LOL Mathy, plommer is all about having fun. It was alot of fun spending the banks money. plommer, best laugh I had in recent memory was your Canadian Tire scam. You're a good guy in my book just for that. What was the bowling alley you waited at? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plommer Posted August 21, 2016 Report Share Posted August 21, 2016 plommer, best laugh I had in recent memory was your Canadian Tire scam. You're a good guy in my book just for that. What was the bowling alley you waited at?Rexdale Bowlerama http://www.bowlerama.com/index.php/rexdale-bowling-centre https://www.google.ca/maps/uv?hl=en&pb=!1s0x882b3a0b6c515765:0xbe17e16f46d56376!2m5!2m2!1i80!2i80!3m1!2i20!3m1!7e115!4s/maps/place/Rexdale%2BBowlerama/@43.7122076,-79.5645552,3a,75y,199.39h,90t/data%3D*213m4*211e1*213m2*211svSQMLH96M11Zg2QJSKDHpw*212e0*214m2*213m1*211s0x0:0xbe17e16f46d56376!5sRexdale+Bowlerama+-+Google+Search&imagekey=!1e2!2svSQMLH96M11Zg2QJSKDHpw&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwihvfnut9POAhXCdR4KHVKcB9sQpx8IeDAK Rexdale Bowlerama was the location of a few scenes from Owning Mahowny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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