How many millions do online sportsbooks leave on the table?

[Reno Marty]

I think we are only basically talking about Bookmaker. Every other books worries about how fast they move their line after Bookmaker. Bookmaker does not want to put out any numbers for you and durito and your kind to slam. They don't pay enough to go up against the computer army.

 

Agree, they don't want to take a side or put their neck out. For this reason they are always trying to move fast in line with bookmaker. I agree. But they could still do this while operating on a non-integer total. It's the same deal: if the over 8 moves up 5cents, they move their over 8.5 (or over 7.5) up 5 cents. I guess they'd need a high school math degree to figure this out though. Pretty scarce for most of them. 

[Reno Marty]

Rexdale Bowlerama

 

https://www.google.ca/maps/uv?hl=en&pb=!1s0x882b3a0b6c515765:0xbe17e16f46d56376!2m5!2m2!1i80!2i80!3m1!2i20!3m1!7e115!4s/maps/place/Rexdale%2BBowlerama/@43.7122076,-79.5645552,3a,75y,199.39h,90t/data%3D*213m4*211e1*213m2*211svSQMLH96M11Zg2QJSKDHpw*212e0*214m2*213m1*211s0x0:0xbe17e16f46d56376!5sRexdale+Bowlerama+-+Google+Search&imagekey=!1e2!2svSQMLH96M11Zg2QJSKDHpw&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwihvfnut9POAhXCdR4KHVKcB9sQpx8IeDAK

 

Canadian Tire across the street. Still.             

[Always Call Heads]

Agree, they don't want to take a side or put their neck out. For this reason they are always trying to move fast in line with bookmaker. I agree. But they could still do this while operating on a non-integer total. It's the same deal: if the over 8 moves up 5cents, they move their over 8.5 (or over 7.5) up 5 cents. I guess they'd need a high school math degree to figure this out though. Pretty scarce for most of them.

I don't think they think they'd get it right and don't want to take the chance. They are doing well enough as it is.

[FISHHEAD]

What was the tire scam?....the "elephant" may be lurking and looking for extra bullets to throw down the drain gambling.

[Hangover]

Says the guy who doesn't care about half points because when he's caped a game to go over it goes over. Yeah you'd be a tough guy to book. All I'd have to do is shade the total 2 half points at 40c each, getting you serious "plus money" and have you double down. 

 

lol who the fuk would bet? Book us at pinny odds

[plommer]

Canadian Tire across the street. Still.             

 

Yeah I didn't create the story, it was something I did as a 17 yr old. I think that Canadian Tire has been at the corner of Kipling & Rexdale for over 50 years.

It was there in the early 70's when I first started bowling at Rexdale Bowlerama - formerly called "SHEAS bowl".

 

plommer grew up in Rexdale, pal - just up the street from Rob Ford.

[Reno Marty]

Plommer ... Hank Webber once considered flying to YYZ for a day trip to Woodbine. He never pulled the trigger, something to do with rug anxiety through airport security.

[FISHHEAD]

It's great to have RenoMarty back in high gear at TGF, isn't it folks?!?!?

[plommer]

Plommer ... Hank Webber once considered flying to YYZ for a day trip to Woodbine. He never pulled the trigger, something to do with rug anxiety through airport security.

 

 

A trip to Woodbine is a must for any serious horseplayer. Thoroughbreds in the afternoon and Harness racing at night !!

 

I've been a million times since 1970.

 

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

I think the books know that they are on the wrong side of the computer power. They can only react. You say the squares outnumber the sharps but that is not the case money wise. They are clearly worried about you computer boys slamming them when they get any number off. They don't want to take the risk.

 

It doesn't matter though.  If the number is equivalent in vig, the number offered on the half points would generally still have a positive expected value for sharps.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Mathy, my guess is that the reason books don't do it is because of a lower theoretical hold at the same break.

 

-110/-110 hold is 4.5455%

-130/+110 hold is 3.9761%

[Always Call Heads]

It doesn't matter though.  If the number is equivalent in vig, the number offered on the half points would generally still have a positive expected value for sharps.

Probably true. I have very limited capacity for this type of thinking. I just think they are very concerned about changing the numbers to create any opportunities and the potential unknown risks.

[pokerjoe]

Mathy, my guess is that the reason books don't do it is because of a lower theoretical hold at the same break.

 

-110/-110 hold is 4.5455%

-130/+110 hold is 3.9761%

 

I think it's this, and squares mistaking price for juice and so being less comfortable betting at -130.

 

I also don't think it matters much in the long run.  Squares, getting a push, just bet again. Their money isn't going anywhere.

[yisman]

Mathy, my guess is that the reason books don't do it is because of a lower theoretical hold at the same break.

 

-110/-110 hold is 4.5455%

-130/+110 hold is 3.9761%

 

 

 

 

MGM/Mirage does this frequently with totals, especially close to close. Quite often you'll see a -135/+115 total. They often do it on second half lines (both sides and totals) as well. They get much of their action from squares, so they attempt to induce action on the other side this way.

 

 

..

[Hangover]

I think it's this, and squares mistaking price for juice and so being less comfortable betting at -130.

 

I also don't think it matters much in the long run.  Squares, getting a push, just bet again. Their money isn't going anywhere.

 

[Fecal Tornado]

I thought the the whole moving line thing was the book(where ever) was to equal out their holding's ? So they are not exposed

[Always Call Heads]

Probably would lower volume on totals. Most bettors would rather bet a number that would push than a juiced number. So the amount you make might be offset by the reduced volume of people holding off on betting those numbers.

[The Dark Man]

How did the music festival go this year? Almost made it.

[Always Call Heads]

I thought the the whole moving line thing was the book(where ever) was to equal out their holding's ? So they are not exposed

That an old myth. Books are always lopsided. Most bettors bet the fav so they come out ahead by being lopsided on favs. Unless they get hammered by sharps and then they have to move the number.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I thought the the whole moving line thing was the book(where ever) was to equal out their holding's ? So they are not exposed

 

In theory, yes.  A lot of books today tend to just move with the market though.  However, here we're talking about a situation where a book could move the spread/total and the implied win percentage to an equivalent alternate spread/total on a half point.

[rito]

Mathy, my guess is that the reason books don't do it is because of a lower theoretical hold at the same break.

 

-110/-110 hold is 4.5455%

-130/+110 hold is 3.9761%

 

this would imply someone working at book knew what a hold is

[Always Call Heads]

I would really hate it. It would not be popular. Math guys would love it. Non-maths hate it. Most bettors are non-math guys and would complain.

[MonkeyF0cker]

this would imply someone working at book knew what a hold is

 

The less sophisticated books probably just do what everyone else is doing.  If they can't calc hold, they definitely can't calc a half point either.  If they were just going to copy Pinny dropdowns, it would be even dumber not to clone Pinny or CRIS entirely.

[Guest pocketrockets]

LOL

 

Mathy, plommer is all about having fun.

 

It was alot of fun spending the banks money.

 

Plommer gets it, fuck the banks, they fuck the people constantly so why not do a little Robin Hood everynow and then?

[Guest pocketrockets]

I thought the the whole moving line thing was the book(where ever) was to equal out their holding's ? So they are not exposed

 

Not necessarily, big difference if you are playing with a local or a post up shop.

 

Most shops won't move the line themselves (except for the big 3, pinny, bm and 5d)... when its a post up shop most small-medium sized shops will follow the main books and look for an average... if the action is too one sided then you play with the juice not much with the numbers.

 

Lets say pinny has colts -6 -115. 5d has colts -6.5 dog 25, bm has colts -6.5 dog 20.. a good average would be -6.5 flat and just watch the action as it comes... then move the juice 5 cents for every few thousand dollars to try and balance the action a bit, or simply get the players to pay the price (usually the public fave loses, so it is a winning strategy regardless of isolated results). The juice spiking becomes more agressive if you are dealing with a prop or a rare sport match being hammered due to the lack of solid statistical data. This is for post up medium small shops... but having moved lines at 5D I can tell you Tony is more jumpy about juicing... for example on live betting/props, he likes a 5/10 cent bump after 2-3k entered one side and none on the other... the props depend much more on which players bet 'em, he has a lot of steamers that play props but are limited to $20-50 max a bet so they pretty much dictate on what side the bump is coming in.

 

If you are a player that plays with a local who pays for a perhead, PPH shops will move on market ALWAYS unless the action is 75% heavier on one side they MIGHT bump it a bit but as a general rule they don't do it cause some agents will get raped by bumping a number. And thats something the agents can do themselves for their own package anyways, so if an agent cares much about balance in the action make no mistake, he will be monitoring the heavy action games and adjusting accordingly.