kovacsbar Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 In game betting is all just a derivative of the original game line. Books use a pricing decay model to automate it the same way options are priced.time decay bad plan of attack for high scoring shit like the kid here is using as an example the old coots use it to bet ties in soccer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 so here we go again see if you butt nuggets can stay away from changing it to whether you have on your wife's underwear and stay on topic hypothetical basketball gameTeam A pregame is -10 at half time score is Team A 40 Team B 50 what will the live game spread be now? Assuming no injuries or ejections my guess is from watching a few games last night and my general opinion is it is blended Simple Math using pregameTeam A should outscore team B by 5 in the 2nd halfso it should be Team A +5 but watching some games and checking them, I would say that is the general idea but not how it works I would guess now we are talking about some sort of regression expected and I think the points are less important or secondary it looks like to me they are more concerned with win probability and convert that back to a point spread so the question is at what point does Team A not become the favorite to win the game 4 5 6 7 8 points behind at half time A 10 pt favorite down by 10 at half, has what chance to win the game outright still? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 I would expect to see a line of Team A -7.5 to 9. If it’s a team like Duke, definitely 9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 College would be a little different also because of wider gaps in talent compared to the NBA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 A 2H I played this week was Duke -8 2H at WF. Game line was -11, tied at half. I played it late, had buyers remorse and didn’t get out of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 you are thinking 2nd half I am talking about live spread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 so we can agree they basically were expected to win the 2nd half by 5 right since the game line was 10 now that they are down by 10 with half the game to go, they are expected to win the 2nd half by 10 now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 I dont know shit about euro league ball but its live now so I am using it as an example pregame Unics was -17 so they should win each qtr by 4 they currently are up 20 in the 3rd qtr the live spread is -19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 they are currently up 20 5min left 3rd and the spread is unics -15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 they are now up 24and the live spread is -24 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 up 23 spread is now -26.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 so we can agree they basically were expected to win the 2nd half by 5 right since the game line was 10 now that they are down by 10 with half the game to go, they are expected to win the 2nd half by 10 now?I can’t assume they would win by 5 in the 2H because we have more info. You are assuming that the 10 was a correct line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 The longer the game plays out, the more it favors the better team also. It was a dumb play by me since duke was on the road, things happen on the conference road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 what do you mean we have more info? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 what do you mean we have more info?You have a feel for the game if you’re watching it. Duke comes out flat for whatever reason, it’s a monster game for WF as Duke has owned them for a decade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 you think they create lines with a feel for the game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 you think they create lines with a feel for the game?Of course I don’t. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 well that is more of what I am trying to get at, like why they get to where they get Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 Numbers don’t always tell the story either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 well that is more of what I am trying to get at, like why they get to where they getThat would be a great question for a linesmaker. I would love to know more. You still have to have a feel (ingame or 2H) for how you think the line will fall. Some just bet ML’s on them also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 Dayton was up 18 at the half as a 10.5 pregame fav.....2nd half line was Dayton -0.5 Was the game flow factored in? He’ll yes it was....if it was only math then the spread would have been Dayton -10.5 again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 yeah we should ask a linemaker, LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 Dayton was up 18 at the half as a 10.5 pregame fav.....2nd half line was Dayton -0.5 Was the game flow factored in? He’ll yes it was....if it was only math then the spread would have been Dayton -10.5 again by simple math Dayton should have won the 2nd half by 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 Dude, you are stuck on the simple math of in-game and HT.....unstick it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 Dayton -0.5 up 18 with a pre flop of -10.5 is telling you the books don’t know what to do.....if they knew Dayton wanted to boat race then it’s 10, if they knew they wanted to coast to an easy win then it would be Davidson -5 It’s up to you to know....and as I told you yesterday always take the value....10.5 dog now getting 18.5....winner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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