FairWarning Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 by simple math Dayton should have won the 2nd half by 5Correct, but that is where other factors come into play - do they have to win by 5 more? There is the letdown factor with big leads, also resting starters. I haven’t played a lot of live or 2H’s this season because of time, but I usually looked for bigger middles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 I am so confused bigger middles, play the dog foot off the gas I dont see how any of that shit gives you a fair line you think these lines are created with a guy sitting and watching every single live game and saying they look tired, they are taking their foot off the gas, they are gonna work hard to recover, that is just not how lines are made or beaten so its simple order the Jet and Yacht now and close pinnacle down just bet every big favorite that is trailing at half! MAGIC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 I am so confused bigger middles, play the dog foot off the gas I dont see how any of that shit gives you a fair line you think these lines are created with a guy sitting and watching every single live game and saying they look tired, they are taking their foot off the gas, they are gonna work hard to recover, that is just not how lines are made or beaten so its simple order the Jet and Yacht now and close pinnacle down just bet every big favorite that is trailing at half! MAGICYou are thinking we think that. But why would a team up 20 at half want to cover a 2H line you think is fair in the 2H? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 If you want a great live betting angle, hope the bulls get a big lead and ML play the opposite side. The Bulls have no depth and are an awful 4th qtr team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 we should not be looking for good angles, we should be looking for good numbers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 we should not be looking for good angles, we should be looking for good numbersThere is room for both, but good numbers always. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 still dont understand the calculation, I need to create a fair line in order to live bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 still dont understand the calculation, I need to create a fair line in order to live betESPN shows the win expectancy on the website as the game progresses, im not sure how much that can help you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 I have a new theory and kinda like itsay pregame -8 200 totalget a 25 pt leadso pregame was -4 per half based on 100 scoring but now with that big lead scoring drops to 80, so now they are favored by 3.2 does that kinda make sense? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 how are all you guys live betting if you cant make a line????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 how are all you guys live betting if you cant make a line?????Do you post at pizza land? Please go back you are fvcking annoying Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 if an NBA team is an 8 pt favorite and trail by 20 at half they win the 2nd half by 15 if they are up by 20 they lose the 2nd half by 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 I have a new theory and kinda like itsay pregame -8 200 totalget a 25 pt leadso pregame was -4 per half based on 100 scoring but now with that big lead scoring drops to 80, so now they are favored by 3.2 does that kinda make sense?I'm trying to follow. Are you saying the 2H total is 80 in your example, your line is -3 to -3.5 prorated? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 I am saying by pulling NBA game data that a team that is pregame an 8 pt favorite and leads by 20 definitively takes their foot off the gas and if they are trailing by 20 they step on it full blast I would change my guess now say a team is an -8 pregame fave trailing by 20 at half line should be 2nd half line -9 or live spread +11ahead by 20 at half 2nd half should be -1 or live spread -21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 I'm trying to follow. Are you saying the 2H total is 80 in your example, your line is -3 to -3.5 prorated? yes was kinda a thought of maybe they are suppose to score about 100 2nd half pregame but with a 20+ pt lead, pace slows drastically and they should score 80 so a 4 prorated would turn to a 3.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 Do you post at pizza land? Please go back you are fvcking annoying just mute the thread and go back to sniffing your grandmas underwear and posting about it, way more valuable posts in that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 I am saying by pulling NBA game data that a team that is pregame an 8 pt favorite and leads by 20 definitively takes their foot off the gas and if they are trailing by 20 they step on it full blast I would change my guess now say a team is an -8 pregame fave trailing by 20 at half line should be 2nd half line -9 or live spread +11ahead by 20 at half 2nd half should be -1 or live spread -21That looks good. Then you have a minor tweak here and there for a schedule spot- teams on B2B, game after playing in Denver etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 all those spot adjustments would not happen at this point only thing that should really change is if an injury or ejection of someone significant Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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