FISHHEAD Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Rito, not chasing any soccer steam of yours that's for certain.................seldom wager soccer any longer. It was a beautiful thing here in Vegas 2-5 years ago, goldmine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 here's that model marty run.model = glm(run1st ~ totalClose + overWinPer + homeWinPer, data=mlb, family= binomial) one line. my cbb model is > 1000 lines of code. i haven't used R in like 6 years is how old that shit is atleast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reno Marty Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 You are talking about a very basic run in first derivative model I posted since I obviously was no longer using it. Model was made probably 10 years ago, super simple and designed to take advantage of square books that routinize used to put up retarded #'s on the yes. I mentioned the model could be vastly improved, but I'm not interested in betting it ( don't have access to the shit books that offer it) anymore. Kelly is irrelevant here anyway when you are getting down what $250? I derive my edges via proper back testing. No model is close to 100%, that run in 1st I wouldn't bet unless was getting 15c better than my line. For soccer/basketball I've gone much further to derive my strike prices. If my model says I have an edge of 3% on a bet (depending on the model) I probably know that's not even historically profitable and I'm not betting. So there is indeed an art to it. You are using the model(s) as a guide and not treating the edges 100% literally. I agree completely. But when you're doing that, it is kind of silly to take Kelly literally aside from just throwing the numbers in to get a ballpark figure of what it thinks you should be betting. Do you literally use Kelly every day, or did you use Kelly once to get a sense of what your unit should be for a 5% edge, a 6% edge, and so on and now you just follow that? I've done that, and if the BR is increasing nicely, I increase the unit sizes in step. I am not against the idea of Kelly; but I think it is just useful as a back of the envelope, not to be implemented to the dollar. Monkey seems to feel otherwise because he criticized Fishhead for locking up $2500 for a few months. I don't know about you rito, but worrying about the opportunity cost of $2500 isn't even worth the energy when your BR is going up and down 20k a day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Right I'm generally not doing Kelly calcs all the time. I have an idea of what % I want to bet given what edge. So just calculating based on current roll. But, that is Kelly betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reno Marty Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 I have a feeling Monkey is doing a lot more than just following the intuition of Kelly (what we both do). On open liquidity markets like soccer, I am guessing Monkey is adjusting his wagers to the $100 mark which if true I would find amusing. The basic idea of Kelly is so simple that even squares do it. When their *perceived* edge is higher, they tend to bet more. I'm obviously not disputing the basic idea of Kelly, just think literal implementation of Kelly is mathturbation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Situations where I need to run Kelly calcs are usually teasers, futures, 0ev hedges Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest boatboatboat Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 I watch the games Wager based on that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 I watch the games Wager based on thatI watch a shitload of soccer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanks Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Can someone recommend a good establishment to get a SUPREME eggs Benedict with a pubic hair garnish?All the sharps bring their own pubic hair and add it after. Saves $.47 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cop Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 All the sharps bring their own pubic hair and add it after. Saves $.47Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 All the sharps bring their own pubic hair and add it after. Saves $.47LOLUsed to know this guy that carried a cockroach in a box, after eating would put on plate and complain to manager, get meal comped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fifty cint Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 LOLUsed to know this guy that carried a cockroach in a box, after eating would put on plate and complain to manager, get meal comped.Your pal Broke? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TobyTyler Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 LOLUsed to know this guy that carried a cockroach in a box, after eating would put on plate and complain to manager, get meal comped."This guy" is Fishmush: -350 Is not Fishmush: +310 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 "This guy" is Fishmush: -350Is not Fishmush: +310Simmer down The last time I dined and dashed was the ALGONA truck stop my junior year in HS at 2am in the morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 So there is indeed an art to it. You are using the model(s) as a guide and not treating the edges 100% literally. I agree completely. But when you're doing that, it is kind of silly to take Kelly literally aside from just throwing the numbers in to get a ballpark figure of what it thinks you should be betting. Do you literally use Kelly every day, or did you use Kelly once to get a sense of what your unit should be for a 5% edge, a 6% edge, and so on and now you just follow that? I've done that, and if the BR is increasing nicely, I increase the unit sizes in step. I am not against the idea of Kelly; but I think it is just useful as a back of the envelope, not to be implemented to the dollar. Monkey seems to feel otherwise because he criticized Fishhead for locking up $2500 for a few months. I don't know about you rito, but worrying about the opportunity cost of $2500 isn't even worth the energy when your BR is going up and down 20k a day. What you're saying about Kelly is just wrong. That was put to rest with a sim I provided a long time ago. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicapper-think-tank/1571755-estimated-edge-error-simulation-kelly-conundrum.html If you are miscalculating your edge by a large factor, it doesn't matter how you stake. You're almost certainly going to lose. I mean, are you advocating flat betting??? Whether it's a Kelly multiplier, a set percentage of your bankroll, or a number out of a hat, you're going to make more money with that capital in your bankroll for those months if you have an edge and you're betting any volume. Again, do the math. It's not that complex. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 I have a feeling Monkey is doing a lot more than just following the intuition of Kelly (what we both do). On open liquidity markets like soccer, I am guessing Monkey is adjusting his wagers to the $100 mark which if true I would find amusing. The basic idea of Kelly is so simple that even squares do it. When their *perceived* edge is higher, they tend to bet more. I'm obviously not disputing the basic idea of Kelly, just think literal implementation of Kelly is mathturbation. Nobody is saying that you MUST adhere to Kelly in all staking situations. But that was NEVER the point. You're just being obtuse for the sake of defending FH. Again, pick any percentage of bankroll and see if your EG over those months with the capital attached to your bankroll eclipses the EV of that single wager. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 By the way, here are the results of the sim of playing through $130k of 99.1% Bonus Poker at $5/hand. You will lose MORE money than the mailers offer 69.09% of the months played (i.e. lose more than $500... indicated by the Breakeven Pct.). Here is the distribution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Doesn't matter if one losses more months than months won..............just like it doesn't matter if one has more losing sessions than winning sessions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Doesn't matter if one losses more months than months won..............just like it doesn't matter if one has more losing sessions than winning sessions. You said that didn't happen with regularity. Now, the story changes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Odom Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Rd 3 started or is it the 4th Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Also, you are not including the $386 earned from the card and the $1237 earned in mailers............................in addition to the free tournaments, drawings, and other mailers...............in addition to having earned rooms, dining, and rooms.............and invites to other events................and cash mailers the follow up months for not even playing which are in the hundreds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Also, you are not including the $386 earned from the card and the $1237 earned in mailers............................in addition to the free tournaments, drawings, and other mailers...............in addition to having earned rooms, dining, and gifts.............and invites to other events................and cash mailers the follow up months for not even playing which are in the hundreds. All this on a MINOR play by professional standards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Also, you are not including the $386 earned from the card and the $1237 earned in mailers............................in addition to the free tournaments, drawings, and other mailers...............in addition to having earned rooms, dining, and rooms.............and invites to other events................and cash mailers the follow up months for not even playing which are in the hundreds. I'm using YOUR numbers, FH (which were inflated by a bit anyway). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 You aren't including the value of the uncashed tickets you might pick up off the ground on your way over to play either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fifty cint Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 A couple of jabs and body shots land....Fishmush on the defensive.Its early in the round but Monkey is clearly ahead at this point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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