FISHHEAD Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Can someone recommend a good establishment to get a SUPREME eggs Benedict with a pubic hair garnish?Try the restaurant at BONNIE SPRINGS, that should fill your need. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gabe Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 This is one thing I know. There are math guys out there who can't make a cent gambling. There are dumbasses who constantly win. Experience, having people around you who are smarter and richer than you goes a long way. Also establishing a mind set to where you don't chase losses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reno Marty Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 This is one thing I know. There are math guys out there who can't make a cent gambling. There are dumbasses who constantly win. Experience, having people around you who are smarter and richer than you goes a long way. Also establishing a mind set to where you don't chase losses. TREMENDOUS post from Gabe, except for that last part. If you only gamble with an edge then there just is no such thing as chasing. Ganchrow one of those math guys who probably never made a penny gambling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gabe Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 TREMENDOUS post from Gabe, except for that last part. If you only gamble with an edge then there just is no such thing as chasing. Ganchrow one of those math guys who probably never made a penny gambling. You keep mentioning edge , but if the edge is miscalculated then you risk severe losses. The human brain is wired to immediately want to recoup losses. A lot of smart people have succumbed to that. We can agree to disagree but chasing losses is something that everyone has done in their lives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Odom Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 is Ganchrow still working for an offshore out doubt it but maybe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gabe Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Ganch is with heritage, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 You keep mentioning edge , but if the edge is miscalculated then you risk severe losses. The human brain is wired to immediately want to recoup losses. A lot of smart people have succumbed to that. We can agree to disagree but chasing losses is something that everyone has done in their lives.Would agree with Gabe here, but having said that, I know longterm professionals that wouldn't dare risk a penny if something wasn't providing a positive expectation.................. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Ganch is with heritage, right? Last I heard, still there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gabe Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Would agree with Gabe here, but having said that, I know longterm professionals that wouldn't dare risk a penny if something wasn't providing a positive expectation..................A lot of people I respect say money management is overrated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 A lot of people I respect say money management is overrated.You would never hear that from me, its essential, not only in gambling, but everyday life.............for the vast, vast, vast majority anyways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reno Marty Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Incredibly overrated provided you have common sense. Beyond that, the return to refining your bet size is infinitesimal. Rito said yesterday he uses Kelly everyday and then elsewhere admits he's badly misestimated his edge and lost 5-6 figures. All I ever do is worry about whether I have an edge and whether I'm estimating it correctly. Appropriate bet sizing is trivial. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reno Marty Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Fish is very, very cautious. Have been admonishing him for years for hedging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gabe Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 I'm cautious too, to a fault. Its sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sol Aristatel Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Incredibly overrated provided you have common sense. Depends on how you define "money management" and who we are applying it to. To many here, it would mean not chasing your losses by going all in after a 0-7 losing streak. And I think that's good advice. And not overrated. MM is far different to the recreational gambler vs the pro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Fish is very, very cautious. Have been admonishing him for years for hedging.True, but really don't hedge that often or that much that often...............boxing almost always do. Would not classify self as very, very cautious or even very cautious..............just cautious at times probably the best description. Have huge volume by my standards(40k) on the upcoming GGG fight that will be hedging from a variety of angles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Odom Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 do a 3x martingale (losing) a 3x parlay (winning) God Bless Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pocketrockets Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Monkey is constantly throwing around how smart he is............ and Reno isnt???? Difference is, RenoFaggot is your friend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 and Reno isnt???? Difference is, RenoFaggot is your friend.LOLOLPerhaps Simmer down Pockets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Incredibly overrated provided you have common sense. Beyond that, the return to refining your bet size is infinitesimal. Rito said yesterday he uses Kelly everyday and then elsewhere admits he's badly misestimated his edge and lost 5-6 figures. All I ever do is worry about whether I have an edge and whether I'm estimating it correctly. Appropriate bet sizing is trivial. When did I badly mis-estimate my edge? If you are talking about a couple months of baseball totals where my average edge vs pin close was like 6% I'd beg to differ. Unless you had info the ball was juiced before everyone else figured it out this year. I originated international soccer all last week. The market size on these games is practically infinite. If I can bet literally more than my roll on a game I like, how would you suggest choosing a bet size? Based on my presumed edge or just pick a random #. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACH Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 This is one thing I know. There are math guys out there who can't make a cent gambling. There are dumbasses who constantly win. This is not true. However, if you win at baseball, there is the possibility of one exception. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reno Marty Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 When did I badly mis-estimate my edge? If you are talking about a couple months of baseball totals where my average edge vs pin close was like 6% I'd beg to differ. Unless you had info the ball was juiced before everyone else figured it out this year. I originated international soccer all last week. The market size on these games is practically infinite. If I can bet literally more than my roll on a game I like, how would you suggest choosing a bet size? Based on my presumed edge or just pick a random #. You've posted lines on other things before that in my opinion were off and in a way that was obvious you were omitting something very important. You still had an edge, but on some games it was minute given your numbers and on other games it was vastly underestimated. Kelly is pointless in a situation where your edge isn't calculated correctly. I'm not criticizing you for the MLB ball juicing thing, my point is that getting the edge right is 99% of the focus and money management comes later. If you look at my earlier post, you are one of the few people with international soccer where you would want to take Kelly more seriously. But again, as I also said before, if you can risk more than your BR on any given game, and if you have a sizable edge it is possible your bet size will be driven more by what you are comfortable with betting. If you are completely fearless risk wise and 100% confident in your edge calculation, though, fire away with Kelly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 You've posted lines on other things before that in my opinion were off and in a way that was obvious you were omitting something very important. You still had an edge, but on some games it was minute given your numbers and on other games it was vastly underestimated. Kelly is pointless in a situation where your edge isn't calculated correctly. I'm not criticizing you for the MLB ball juicing thing, my point is that getting the edge right is 99% of the focus and money management comes later. If you look at my earlier post, you are one of the few people with international soccer where you would want to take Kelly more seriously. But again, as I also said before, if you can risk more than your BR on any given game, and if you have a sizable edge it is possible your bet size will be driven more by what you are comfortable with betting. If you are completely fearless risk wise and 100% confident in your edge calculation, though, fire away with Kelly. You are talking about a very basic run in first derivative model I posted since I obviously was no longer using it. Model was made probably 10 years ago, super simple and designed to take advantage of square books that routinize used to put up retarded #'s on the yes. I mentioned the model could be vastly improved, but I'm not interested in betting it ( don't have access to the shit books that offer it) anymore. Kelly is irrelevant here anyway when you are getting down what $250? I derive my edges via proper back testing. No model is close to 100%, that run in 1st I wouldn't bet unless was getting 15c better than my line. For soccer/basketball I've gone much further to derive my strike prices. If my model says I have an edge of 3% on a bet (depending on the model) I probably know that's not even historically profitable and I'm not betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gabe Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 When did I badly mis-estimate my edge? If you are talking about a couple months of baseball totals where my average edge vs pin close was like 6% I'd beg to differ. Unless you had info the ball was juiced before everyone else figured it out this year. I originated international soccer all last week. The market size on these games is practically infinite. If I can bet literally more than my roll on a game I like, how would you suggest choosing a bet size? Based on my presumed edge or just pick a random #. Thank you for sharing. Can't throw a bone to us little guys? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Thank you for sharing. Can't throw a bone to us little guys? I posted a bunch of plays in Tommy's thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pocketrockets Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 I posted a bunch of plays in Tommy's thread rito also posts in the picks subforum sometimes fam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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