FairWarning Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 That reminds me of that story about a Southern woman who goes to this la-dee-da cocktail party in New York City. She turns to a Northern woman and says, "Where y'all from?" The Northern woman looks at her and she says, "We're from where we don't end our sentences with a preposition." So the Southern woman looks at her and says, "Oh...well then, where y'all from.......BITCH!" That’s a quote from an article by the way. Too many quotations with end quotations to try to figure out, so I’m just giving acknowledgment in this manner.Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Downsouth Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Beautifully. Just giving you a tough time Dan. Are you still in crypto?Maybe he actually just writes the word beautiful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAG Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Maybe he actually just writes the word beautiful. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTiger Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Hhahahhahahaha! Picturing Paula Deen or similar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 what happened to my boy durito, I thought he was gonna show me his skills? overslept and everything i wanted today moved good week though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Nice week there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machiavelli Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 rito is the AlNon heterosexual person ambler hands down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 nice now show me some lines 6:00p 307391 307392 South Carolina State NC Central 02/25 6:30p 307393 307394 Howard Morgan State 02/25 6:30p 307395 307396 Delaware State Coppin State 02/25 6:30p 307397 307398 NJ Tech Lipscomb 02/25 6:30p 307399 307400 Savannah State N. Carolina A&T 02/25 7:30p 307401 307402 Alabama State Southern Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 overslept and everything i wanted today moved good week though how do you have such perfect numbers? i think its cool that you win and lose to exact change. how do you do that? do you use a staking method that eliminates change or something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 how do you have such perfect numbers? i think its cool that you win and lose to exact change. how do you do that? do you use a staking method that eliminates change or something? you can't be real Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 you can't be real I wasnt being cute, I was curious, I assume its a method of some sort Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 I wasnt being cute, I was curious, I assume its a method of some sort bet the max on every bet maybe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 nice now show me some lines 6:00p 307391307392 South Carolina State NC Central 02/256:30p 307393307394 Howard Morgan State 02/256:30p 307395307396 Delaware State Coppin State 02/256:30p 307397307398 NJ Tech Lipscomb 02/256:30p 307399307400 Savannah State N. Carolina A&T 02/257:30p 307401307402 Alabama State Southern Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 so you would take Notre Dame +13 right? I mean I dont know if anyone is sitting or something but from the model I mean. I see its at 13 so you expect that to come way down! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Probably be gone by the time limits go up tomorrow. You see now why posting this harms me? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Probably be gone by the time limits go up tomorrow. You see now why posting this harms me? yeah i can see how if you did it regularly it could have a detrimental effect. but notre dame would be a play because you think the line will come way down or because you think 13 is too much on that game. what is your reasoning for the play. is 8 right or is 13, i mean assuming it stayed on 13 or near there. i would not expect it to come to 8, do you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drnkyourmlkshk1 Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Nice week Rito. I bet nba daily and originate my own numbers. Whats the wager? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 also is that spreadsheet the holy grail or only a guide? like assuming nothing odd you would take ND or are there other factors that can stop or make a play Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 I am also shocked by how far off that is, I am never that far from the line opener or close on a game, is that common, and is that ok for you to be that far off the number? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 so you would take Notre Dame +13 right? I mean I dont know if anyone is sitting or something but from the model I mean. I see its at 13 so you expect that to come way down!I’m certainly no pro but I have lost far more than I’ve won by betting a ND +13, the line drops to 11, and they lose by 20. Betting it just because of value. I can’t win that way, kudos to those who do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 yeah i can see how if you did it regularly it could have a detrimental effect. but notre dame would be a play because you think the line will come way down or because you think 13 is too much on that game. what is your reasoning for the play. is 8 right or is 13, i mean assuming it stayed on 13 or near there. i would not expect it to come to 8, do you?5pt differences from this model hit ~55% As I said in the other thread the model is not perfect. If +13 is 55% the fair line more like +11.5. If you want to get close to the opener just copy kenpom like the books do. The line will move off 13 simply because I bet it. Lik I said clv is mostly of function of whoever has the most $ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 25, 2019 Report Share Posted February 25, 2019 5pt differences from this model hit ~55% As I said in the other thread the model is not perfect. If +13 is 55% the fair line more like +11.5. If you want to get close to the opener just copy kenpom like the books do. The line will move off 13 simply because I bet it. Lik I said clv is mostly of function of whoever has the most $ so 11.5 is the "right" number? and if so does that mean the model needs a tuneup or does it mean the line is not efficient? I am not trying to be a smartass I know I sound like one, but my ?s are sincere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 25, 2019 Report Share Posted February 25, 2019 5pt differences from this model hit ~55% As I said in the other thread the model is not perfect. If +13 is 55% the fair line more like +11.5. If you want to get close to the opener just copy kenpom like the books do. The line will move off 13 simply because I bet it. Lik I said clv is mostly of function of whoever has the most $ when you say 5pt diff hit at 55% is that a huge sample size and why would that correlate to anything, that seems like noise to me, the hit rate because of a certain difference in the line or is that completely wrong in your opinion? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted February 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2019 I am also shocked by how far off that is, I am never that far from the line opener or close on a game, is that common, and is that ok for you to be that far off the number?That is why he spends his time on NCAAB and not NBA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machiavelli Posted February 25, 2019 Report Share Posted February 25, 2019 Dang, dan. Let him keep at least one secret lolol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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