Official Dem Nominee Thread (NO POLITICS - JUST BETTING TALK)

[tailsyoulose]

Would you rather have listened to another group of people besides scientists or epidemiologists? 

 

YES. Probabilists who understand tail risk, and don't make policy based on awful "model predictions" whose error is virtually infinite.

 

You. Are. Naive.

[tailsyoulose]

I have no idea what you are talking about with options my guy. You have me confused with someone else there.

 

I'm demonstrating that when you learn to think for yourself - and ignore "experts" who feed you BS - you will become very rich, very fast.

[joeybagadonuts]

The irony in this statement is incredible...

Ted and Raise are both dumb older white people who are mad the world is passing them by.

 

I actually like tails posts a lot. He’s an independent thinker and I respect he puts his money where his mouth is. Don’t always agree with him, but still respect him.

 

Most of the other people in this thread are absolute clowns

[tailsyoulose]

Hines acts like he's the only one who's ever read a book, and goes around demanding that you read a 562 page turd of a book before you can even have a discourse with him. 

 

I find that incredibly off-putting. 

[HinesWard86]

You're an idiot, and i can play this game too.

 

Read. "The. Tyranny. Of. Experts."

 

How am I an idiot? Because I trust experts?

 

You are willing to dismiss experts entirely because they got some things wrong about a new virus. That is expected any time there is something new. That is one of the main points Kuhn makes in The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. There will be trial and error. That's a given.

 

So here's my question then...what's your counter-argument? Do we never trust experts? Do we all just do our own thing? Who would you have rather had in charge of tackling COVID-19? Lawyers? Accountants? Fishermen? If you don't trust experts, who do you trust?

 

I might check out your book recommendation. Do you see the irony in it though? I trust experts and gave you a recommendation of a book from an expert, while you don't trust experts and gave me a recommendation of a book from an expert. Interesting.

 

Who were you thinking of with the Options talk? It sure wasn't me. 

[RaiseThese]

Hines acts like he's the only one who's ever read a book, and goes around demanding that you read a 562 page turd of a book before you can even have a discourse with him. 

 

I find that incredibly off-putting. 

The dude is a career student, its not like he has used his 4 degrees for anything much outside of trying to outwit forum degens.

I mean he writes nickel and dime sports articles, not that there is anything wrong with that in itself,, but he tries to project himself as some

kind of scholar.

 

I think Calvin said it best

 

 

I can tell you that Joey has swooned and  fallen under his spell for sure

Signed "An old man in slippers chasing a fast moving world "

:

[HinesWard86]

Hines acts like he's the only one who's ever read a book, and goes around demanding that you read a 562 page turd of a book before you can even have a discourse with him. 

 

I find that incredibly off-putting. 

 

Reading is fundamental. I'm saying if you read that book, you will have a much greater understanding of what happens at the forefront of science. I can't do Kuhn justice, so that's why I'm recommending the book.

[HinesWard86]

The dude is a career student, its not like he has used his 4 degrees for anything much outside of trying to outwit forum degens.

I mean he writes nickel and dime sports articles, not that there is anything wrong with that in itself,, but he tries to project himself as some

kind of scholar.

 

I'm largely posting because I can't travel at the moment.

 

I love my job and what I do. As I said before, I could be making more money using my language and my clearance, but money doesn't matter much to me. 

 

It is kind of silly that I'm here of all places, but I am prone to nostalgia. I loved gambling forums, especially TheRX Rubber Room crew from 2009 to 2011 or so, and I was hoping it was somewhat still intact after I was away from the boards for a long time. Shame that it's not.

[tailsyoulose]

I can't believe I'm wasting my time spoon feeding you. But here goes.

 

You are willing to dismiss experts entirely because they got some things wrong about a new virus. That is expected any time there is something new. 

 

You fail to realize the limits of "experts" abilities. 

 

 

So here's my question then...what's your counter-argument? Do we never trust experts? Do we all just do our own thing? Who would you have rather had in charge of tackling COVID-19? Lawyers? Accountants? Fishermen? If you don't trust experts, who do you trust?

 

How on earth are you not getting this? Did the example I just gave you not sink in? I trust PROBABILISTS WHO UNDERSTAND TAIL RISK. I trust MYSELF, because I am a quant and I understand TAIL RISK. Do I have to say it again? JFC.

 

 

I might check out your book recommendation. Do you see the irony in it though?

 

I see no irony, because my reading list is long enough. And as a rule I don't take book recommendations from imbeciles with awful instincts who are totally naive. Get a graduate degree in probability then come talk to me.

 

 

Who were you thinking of with the Options talk? It sure wasn't me. 

 

YOU. I was providing you the example YOU requested. Not only showing that I know better than the "experts" but that I also put my money where my mouth is and made nearly half a million (so far) this year on trades as a result. 

[rito]

How am I an idiot? Because I trust experts?

 

You are willing to dismiss experts entirely because they got some things wrong about a new virus. That is expected any time there is something new. That is one of the main points Kuhn makes in The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. There will be trial and error. That's a given.

 

So here's my question then...what's your counter-argument? Do we never trust experts? Do we all just do our own thing? Who would you have rather had in charge of tackling COVID-19? Lawyers? Accountants? Fishermen? If you don't trust experts, who do you trust?

 

I might check out your book recommendation. Do you see the irony in it though? I trust experts and gave you a recommendation of a book from an expert, while you don't trust experts and gave me a recommendation of a book from an expert. Interesting.

 

Who were you thinking of with the Options talk? It sure wasn't me.

Do you consider yourself a sportsbetting expert?

[mikeman]

Because I believe that experts are experts for a reason?

I used to think that, if we've learned anything from the pandemic it's that even scientists and medical people are hyper political. We cannot trust anything theat we hear from anyone anymore...only Tucker Carson can be trusted.

[tailsyoulose]

I used to think that, if we've learned anything from the pandemic it's that even scientists and medical people are hyper political. We cannot trust anything theat we hear from anyone anymore...only Tucker Carson can be trusted.

 

 

merlin you are a terrible person, but your posts do make me laugh.

[mikeman]

Guys like Merlin and Raise are literally poster children for Dunning-Kruger. To them googling for 3 mins >>>> years of studying

It's rare i google about a popular topic, it's not necessary for a worldly man like me. i do google spelling as that is not my forte.

[HinesWard86]

I can't believe I'm wasting my time spoon feeding you. But here goes.

 

 

You fail to realize the limits of "experts" abilities. 

 

 

 

How on earth are you not getting this? Did the example I just gave you not sink in? I trust PROBABILISTS WHO UNDERSTAND TAIL RISK. I trust MYSELF, because I am a quant and I understand TAIL RISK. Do I have to say it again? JFC.

 

 

 

I see no irony, because my reading list is long enough. And as a rule I don't take book recommendations from imbeciles with awful instincts who are totally naive. Get a graduate degree in probability then come talk to me.

 

 

 

YOU. I was providing you the example YOU requested. Not only showing that I know better than the "experts" but that I also put my money where my mouth is and made nearly half a million (so far) this year on trades as a result. 

 

I'll tell you what. Re-read your posts and re-read mine, and then try to figure out your multiple logical errors in the span of two pages. If not, I will be happy to FJM it for you later. 

 

Another "quant" that has never read The Structure of Scientific Revolutions is pretty funny though. 

[HinesWard86]

Do you consider yourself a sportsbetting expert?

 

Nope, but two major sportsbooks have used me as an odds consultant for Esports, political odds, and college football since I left the Army though. I must be doing something right.

[tailsyoulose]

I'll tell you what. Re-read your posts and re-read mine, and then try to figure out your multiple logical errors in the span of two pages. If not, I will be happy to FJM it for you later. 

 

Another "quant" that has never read The Structure of Scientific Revolutions is pretty funny though. 

 

What an idiot. 

 

You're back on my auto-ignore list. Don't know why I even bothered.

[tailsyoulose]

if you read that book, you will have a much greater understanding of what happens at the forefront of science.

 

This is an interesting thing to say to someone with over a dozen publications under his belt, in the hard sciences, many at the top research journals in the world. Hmm.

[Teddy kgb]

86 looking like a fool......watch and see Hammer switch sides

[El Chapo2017]

Is Whitmer making a Late Move?

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/gov-gretchen-whitmer-remains-biden-s-list-running-mate-pick-n1236049

[theguesser]

The irony in this statement is incredible...

It really is unbelievable.  These guys are the epitome of irony, arrogance, groupthink, lack of self awareness, and projection.  

[theguesser]

Is Whitmer making a Late Move?

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/gov-gretchen-whitmer-remains-biden-s-list-running-mate-pick-n1236049

Whitmer is tremendous, and has a great future.   But the backlash Biden would get for choosing a non minority just is not worth it, in a do no harm moment in his campaign.  It would be another massive unforced error.  

[RaiseThese]

It really is unbelievable.  These guys are the epitome of irony, arrogance, groupthink, lack of self awareness, and projection.  

[HinesWard86]

Logical Fallacy #1

 

Because you believe the experts are remotely honest, immune to massive blind spots (particularly as it relates to rare and catastrophic events, as well as downstream, nonlinear consequences of policies/action/inaction) and have your best interests at heart. 

 

Carry on though.

 

 

 

You fail to realize the limits of "experts" abilities. 

 

 

I never said either of these things, and none of my statements have indicated anything of the sort. I have repeatedly stressed to read Kuhn and understand how much trial and error is on the periphery of science. 

 

Also, your claim that I'm naive because "you believe the experts are remotely honest" is rather telling. It also hints at your own biases that you have exposed in later posts. We will get to those soon though.

[rito]

It really is unbelievable. These guys are the epitome of irony, arrogance, groupthink, lack of self awareness, and projection.

Lol group think. From the guys that don't participate in the mainstream bs.

[HinesWard86]

Logical Fallacy #2

 

Read. The. Structure. Of. Scientific. Revolutions. Please. When we have something new, there are a lot of unknowns. This was new, so there were a lot of unknowns. Did they get things wrong? Sure. Would you rather have listened to another group of people besides scientists or epidemiologists? I'm thinking not.

 

I have no idea what you are talking about with options my guy. You have me confused with someone else there.

 

 

You're an idiot, and i can play this game too.

 

Read. "The. Tyranny. Of. Experts."

 

 

Hines acts like he's the only one who's ever read a book, and goes around demanding that you read a 562 page turd of a book before you can even have a discourse with him. 

 

I find that incredibly off-putting. 

 

Outright dismissing a book that is considered by many to be one of the greatest books of the 21st Century (especially for academics) is just troubling.