rito Posted August 6, 2020 Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 Nope, but two major sportsbooks have used me as an odds consultant for Esports, political odds, and college football since I left the Army though. I must be doing something right.They pay you a million or so a year? Because that's about what tails and I make betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted August 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 today i made this much money and all i did was sit on my ass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinesWard86 Posted August 6, 2020 Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 YES. Probabilists who understand tail risk, and don't make policy based on awful "model predictions" whose error is virtually infinite. You. Are. Naive. I can't believe I'm wasting my time spoon feeding you. But here goes. You fail to realize the limits of "experts" abilities. How on earth are you not getting this? Did the example I just gave you not sink in? I trust PROBABILISTS WHO UNDERSTAND TAIL RISK. I trust MYSELF, because I am a quant and I understand TAIL RISK. Do I have to say it again? JFC. I see no irony, because my reading list is long enough. And as a rule I don't take book recommendations from imbeciles with awful instincts who are totally naive. Get a graduate degree in probability then come talk to me. YOU. I was providing you the example YOU requested. Not only showing that I know better than the "experts" but that I also put my money where my mouth is and made nearly half a million (so far) this year on trades as a result. Here is your implicit bias. You don't see outside the narrow view of your field. We should trust probabilists more than people who are experts in their fields? So that makes you and your ilk the experts of everything? Do you see how that's problematic? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted August 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 Here is your implicit bias. You don't see outside the narrow view of your field. We should trust probabilists more than people who are experts in their fields? So that makes you and your ilk the experts of everything? Do you see how that's problematic? havent read a single word of this trash BTW. just thought you should know. you got beat up a lot as a kid, huh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinesWard86 Posted August 6, 2020 Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 What an idiot. You're back on my auto-ignore list. Don't know why I even bothered. This is an interesting thing to say to someone with over a dozen publications under his belt, in the hard sciences, many at the top research journals in the world. Hmm. Am I so in your head that you make yourself out to be a hypocrite in the span of seven minutes? That's funny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted August 6, 2020 Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 Here is your implicit bias. You don't see outside the narrow view of your field. We should trust probabilists more than people who are experts in their fields? So that makes you and your ilk the experts of everything? Do you see how that's problematic?You could just read Taleb and that would get you most of the way there. My stats education pales in comparison to tales but I have real world experience most highly educated folk lack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinesWard86 Posted August 6, 2020 Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 This is an interesting thing to say to someone with over a dozen publications under his belt, in the hard sciences, many at the top research journals in the world. Hmm. This is your go-to? I'm published on a daily basis and have been published in both political science and international affairs journals. Also, that's a pretty damning admission on your part. If you have been published that often, that's not something I would tell to my colleagues. Rather embarrassing. Kind of like a pastor saying he never read Proverbs and somehow gloating about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinesWard86 Posted August 6, 2020 Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 They pay you a million or so a year? Because that's about what tails and I make betting. Good for you? What does this matter? As I've said before, I don't really care about money. If I did, I'd be in a SCIF somewhere right now. Also, I'm not a probabilist, but I would say it's pretty -EV to have 18,000 posts here. Seems like a good use of your time and skills :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatboatboat Posted August 6, 2020 Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 I had an article in fur fish and game when i was 16. Floating log,leg hold sets in fluctuating water depths Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted August 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 October SLV calls already in the money. Jan 21 calls gonna be worth a mil in a few weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Chapo2017 Posted August 6, 2020 Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 Whitmer is tremendous, and has a great future. But the backlash Biden would get for choosing a non minority just is not worth it, in a do no harm moment in his campaign. It would be another massive unforced error. I agree with that. Way Too many people would complain about "2 White People"... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted August 6, 2020 Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 Good for you? What does this matter? As I've said before, I don't really care about money. If I did, I'd be in a SCIF somewhere right now. Also, I'm not a probabilist, but I would say it's pretty -EV to have 18,000 posts here. Seems like a good use of your time and skills :)Always hear that about posting but the connections I've made on these forums are the main reason I e been able to be successful at this. So yes fking around here may be -ev daily but if once every few years I meet someone that helps my business then it's not. Also people that don't care about money are usually ones that can't figure out how to make any. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERBtheGREAT Posted August 6, 2020 Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 today i made this much money and all i did was sit on my ass Teach me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatboatboat Posted August 6, 2020 Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 Damn90kHuge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeybagadonuts Posted August 6, 2020 Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 86 looking like a fool......watch and see Hammer switch sidesSwitch sides on what ? Is this like the Monty hall problem? Oh wait, you can’t figure that out. Never mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERBtheGREAT Posted August 6, 2020 Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 Should have bought silver calls when tails said, would be retired right now lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinesWard86 Posted August 6, 2020 Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 Also people that don't care about money are usually ones that can't figure out how to make any. Or they simply find their joy and fulfillment in other things. If making money gives you joy and fulfillment, good for you. Maslow would be proud. I find my joy and fulfillment in activities and deeds rather than in money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted August 6, 2020 Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 Money gives me the time/ability to do the activities I enjoy while supporting my family. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted August 6, 2020 Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 Switch sides on what ? Is this like the Monty hall problem? Oh wait, you can’t figure that out. Never mind.Plommer called.....he has a new scheme to make a million dollars, just needs a stake of $2200 and will split profits 50/50 Hahahahahaha...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeybagadonuts Posted August 6, 2020 Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 Plommer called.....he has a new scheme to make a million dollars, just needs a stake of $2200 and will split profits 50/50 Hahahahahaha......You do realize I still made money off that , right ? When you need money you have to ask your wife or mom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinesWard86 Posted August 6, 2020 Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 Money gives me the time/ability to do the activities I enjoy while supporting my family. And that's great, good for you. Time is the most important thing you can give anyone or any cause at the end of the day. I give my time to causes. I was inspired by the Blood Telegram in college, and I spend a lot of time working with refugee groups. That's where I find my joy and fulfillment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted August 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 today i made this much money and all i did was sit on my ass Made another 8k since this last post. While eating some pulled pork and fried cauliflower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatboatboat Posted August 6, 2020 Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 On pace for 250 mill based on 250 mkt days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tailsyoulose Posted August 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 On pace for 250 mill based on 250 mkt daysNo I won't make it to 9 figures until my treasury shorts come in. Two more years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatboatboat Posted August 6, 2020 Report Share Posted August 6, 2020 Still huge Congrats. What do you spend your $ on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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