FISHHEAD Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 wowfinancial markets gonna crumble at that paceThanks Mike Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 wowfinancial markets gonna crumble at that paceThanks MikeThey will fall for sure, there will be a bottom though(hopefully), the problem is the panic, in seattle they're shutting down schools if 1 person even associated with a school has it, well pretty soon every major district will have someone sick, so they're gonna shut them all down, spread that to public events, sporting events, and it'll ripple through everything. i dont think there will be a baseball season, are they going to play baseball in seattle, in SF, etc? i dont see it happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kovacsbar Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 They will fall for sure, there will be a bottom though(hopefully), the problem is the panic, in seattle they're shutting down schools if 1 person even associated with a school has it, well pretty soon every major district will have someone sick, so they're gonna shut them all down, spread that to public events, sporting events, and it'll ripple through everything. i dont think there will be a baseball season, are they going to play baseball in seattle, in SF, etc? i dont see it happening. Easy fella, they gonna play, attendance ain't mandatory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 Easy fella, they gonna play, attendance ain't mandatory.They can try, but sooner or later some players will get it, then they will quarantine that player and his team - so they do what, Forfeit? In time players or staff on 3-4-5 teams will get it, you just cant have a season with some teams playing and some not. It's hard to imagine you could have a situation where the disease is widespread, for teams to constantly travel from city to city, airport to airport, hotel to hotel, being fed, etc, and not get the virus? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kovacsbar Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 They can try, but sooner or later some players will get it, then they will quarantine that player and his team - so they do what, Forfeit? In time players or staff on 3-4-5 teams will get it, you just cant have a season with some teams playing and some not. It's hard to imagine you could have a situation where the disease is widespread, for teams to constantly travel from city to city, airport to airport, hotel to hotel, being fed, etc, and not get the virus? You too far out in front of yourself here. Shit fall down the stairs one at time, same like it go up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 You too far out in front of yourself here. Shit fall down the stairs one at time, same like it go up.Could be. Good old spring break coming up, millions of students from all over the US(and world) mixing for fun and frolic, then dispersing back to their respective cities and states, a toxic stew. By the way, we have another cruise ship out there off san fran with 3000 people,some of them sick, they have to get them off and quick, forcing passengers on that one off japan to stay together caused half the ship to get the virus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 Thinks look bleakPlus correction Plus Turnip in officePlus China DOOMSDAY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kovacsbar Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 Nothing has hit the data at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kovacsbar Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 Wait for Consumer confidence and advance orders in the next week and go from there. Job numbers are bullshit anymore, check productivity and capacity utilization maybe but those were falling badly in USA long before CV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepy Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 Thinks look bleakPlus correction Plus Turnip in officePlus China DOOMSDAY DJIA futures getting crushed in the overnight market Nikkei and Hang Seng markets both down huge Looks like another blood bath tomorrow Thanks Trump Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 I saw another idiotic economic prediction from one of the experts, they said 1st qtr "growth" in china should be flat. They're out of their mind, more like negative 35 -40%. it's all lies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kovacsbar Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 I saw another idiotic economic prediction from one of the experts, they said 1st qtr "growth" in china should be flat. They're out of their mind, more like negative 35 -40%. it's all lies. Flat is probably about a 300 billion dollar hit guy 40% around 2 trillion. If it's 40% the whole world be lookin for work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeybagadonuts Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 This is what's going to happen here, by chartFrance ItalySouth korea Finally worldwide excluding china They're all the same, cases doubling every 2-3 daysThis is what I was explaining to Ted since day 1. It’s pretty simple to see what is happening in places that actually have tests available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 This is what I was explaining to Ted since day 1. It’s pretty simple to see what is happening in places that actually have tests available.Yup, our numbers are low because of testing, or lack thereof. On that curve we are just starting the rapid ascent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 Flat is probably about a 300 billion dollar hit guy 40% around 2 trillion. If it's 40% the whole world be lookin for work.I would say chinas 1st qtr gdp is prob -30% at least, 1/3d to 1/2 of their production has been shut down for 6 weeks now, and is only slowly returning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 Actually the worst hasn't even started yet, we're just starting to see mass cancellations and reduced bookings. the worst will come in 6-8 weeks when almost no one is flying. Airlines almost went out of business after 911, I think some did. If you really want to take a chance, wait, they'll be 1/2 the price.The worst doesn't have to happen for it to be priced in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 You guys act like this is an incurable, terminal disease. 97% (on the low side) will be back to work in two weeks of contracting the virus. And eventually, coronavirus will be dealt with no differently than the flu. The idea of containment is quickly reaching the point of ineffectual and a waste of resources. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 The worst doesn't have to happen for it to be priced in.I agree, but people are still kidding themselves about what "might" happen, a worldwide air travel collapse would be devastating. Oil demand is collapsing right now. Now granted you have to try and control it, slowing it down brings us closer to a cure/vaccine, but it cant possibly work here(unlike china) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigrunner Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 Its a fact stock markets do better under Democratic leadership. Democrats are less corrupt. For example in a little over 3 years Trump has funnelled close too 200 million of taxpayers dollars to his golf resorts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kovacsbar Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 I would say chinas 1st qtr gdp is prob -30% at least, 1/3d to 1/2 of their production has been shut down for 6 weeks now, and is only slowly returning. That would be more evident in Q2 numbers. A decent chunk of China's economy is state owned to protect it basically. China has more cash than King Tut got gold, they can make a fukkload of problems disappear with out having to mess with rates print money whatever. Can't apply US fundamentals to anywhere but the US. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 I agree, but people are still kidding themselves about what "might" happen, a worldwide air travel collapse would be devastating. Oil demand is collapsing right now. Now granted you have to try and control it, slowing it down brings us closer to a cure/vaccine, but it cant possibly work here(unlike china)And that's all temporary. The world isn't gonna shut down forever because of coronavirus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kovacsbar Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 The worst doesn't have to happen for it to be priced in. That would be suicide Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeybagadonuts Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 And that's all temporary. The world isn't gonna shut down forever because of coronavirus.Obviously. That said , it’s already been pretty disruptive and it’s only going to get much worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 You guys act like this is an incurable, terminal disease. 97% (on the low side) will be back to work in two weeks of contracting the virus. And eventually, coronavirus will be dealt with no differently than the flu. The idea of containment is quickly reaching the point of ineffectual and a waste of resources.What china is doing could/should work, if everyone is forced to sit in place, in a month or two it should run it's course, every infected person either dead, or recovered. in this country we cant force people to stay inside or tell them, sorry, no hospitals available, good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted March 6, 2020 Report Share Posted March 6, 2020 That would be more evident in Q2 numbers. A decent chunk of China's economy is state owned to protect it basically. China has more cash than King Tut got gold, they can make a fukkload of problems disappear with out having to mess with rates print money whatever. Can't apply US fundamentals to anywhere but the US.China's corporate debt is IMMENSE and they are scrambling to keep businesses solvent right now. People will have to go back to work. There and elsewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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